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6/12/2002 edition

Learn From This Betting Advice

Last Saturday the studio host on Sky Racing had this to say:

"So, last couple of races punters have been well and truly on top but you've had to accept fairly short odds about both Dorky and Half Edgy. At least we've got a bit of a bank for the remainder of the day."

1. "So, last couple of races punters have been well and truly on top..."

These comments were made about the tote prices. Punters are never "well and truly on top" of the tote. We all know the tote never loses so punters are never on top.

2. "...you've had to accept fairly short odds..."

We didn't feel that we "had to accept" short tote win odds of $1.30 about Dorky and $1.50 about Half Edgy. Punters backing winners at those odds are also hardly "well and truly on top". Sensible bettors never have to accept any odds they consider are too short - that is poor value and poor betting. Sensible bettors decide if the odds are value. Only when the odds are value do sensible bettors place a bet.

3. "...At least we've got a bit of a bank for the remainder of the day."

Sensible punter's do not start the day's betting with the aim of backing a few winners early so they haver a betting bank. Sensible punters do not place bets on odds on tote favourites at the start of a betting day to try and get a betting bank for the rest of the day. They know that a very conservative betting bank needs to be in place before the day starts. All sensible punters also know that future bets on any day should never be dependent on backing a few winners early.

The studio host on Sky Racing should have said::

" Punters who took the very poor tote win odds of $1.30 about Dorky and $1.50 about Half Edgy can consider themselves very fortunate to have made a profit. If they keep taking those odds they'll end up losing."

4. Twenty minutes later when short priced favourite Best Northern finished fourth at Eagle Farm we were told Best Northern was a "victim of the second up hoodoo."

The "second up hoodoo" is superstition. It is not supported by facts. There is no such thing as a "second up hoodoo". Most horses are improved by their first up runs and will perform at a higher rating level second up.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Learn from these betting comments
Betting favourites - some bookmaker and tote statistics
Form analysis and handicapping tips
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Money talks - Rosehill betting tips from the track
Money talks - Moonee Valley betting tips from the track
Money talks - Eagle Farm betting tips from the track
Money talks - Morphettville betting tips from the track
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 29/11/2002
Punt to Win index


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