Punt to Win
Morphettville Horseracing Track
Each week we will feature tables showing just how successful the "smart money" was in Adelaide. We have decided to include Adelaide despite the high percentages the bookmakers bet to, because:
1. The plunges get accentuated. It doesn't take much money
for the Adelaide bookies to dramatically turn in the prices.
To qualify a horse must have firmed 5% in the betting market. For example if a horse was backed in from $5.00 (4/1 or 20%) to $4.00 (3/1 or 25%) it will qualify. Odds calculator gives you tables.
When the horse wins, so you can judge for yourself how sensible or silly it is over the long term to "follow the money" on the tote, we will also include the worst tote price available. Plenty of tote punters will have collected that tote dividend. Most of them would have "followed the money" on the tote.
Are they getting big enough winning dividends when they "follow the money" on the tote to cover themselves for when "following the tote money loses"?
The jockeys and trainers are also important. You may see some jockeys and trainers consistently bringing home plunges whereas others regularly fail to deliver.
This edition of Punt to Win:
It is just about
impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short
priced tote favourites to make up for the big unders on
Short priced tote
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