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6/12/2002 edition

Morphettville Horseracing Track
Betting Tips from the Track
Plunge Horses
Money Talks?

Each week we will feature tables showing just how successful the "smart money" was in Adelaide. We have decided to include Adelaide despite the high percentages the bookmakers bet to, because:

1. The plunges get accentuated. It doesn't take much money for the Adelaide bookies to dramatically turn in the prices.

2. In our opinion many of the plunged horses were under the odds before the plunge even took place. It will be interesting to see what return there is on these horses at the top odds available. We believe they will definitely return a significant loss at the plunged starting price, which are the odds tote punters end up taking (often shorter). So much for "tips from the track".

To qualify a horse must have firmed 5% in the betting market. For example if a horse was backed in from $5.00 (4/1 or 20%) to $4.00 (3/1 or 25%) it will qualify. Odds calculator gives you tables.

When the horse wins, so you can judge for yourself how sensible or silly it is over the long term to "follow the money" on the tote, we will also include the worst tote price available. Plenty of tote punters will have collected that tote dividend. Most of them would have "followed the money" on the tote.

Are they getting big enough winning dividends when they "follow the money" on the tote to cover themselves for when "following the tote money loses"?

The jockeys and trainers are also important. You may see some jockeys and trainers consistently bringing home plunges whereas others regularly fail to deliver.

Morphettville, Saturday, 30th. November 2002

Horse, jockey
and trainer

Firmed from % Firm Tote Finish Beaten/winning margin
Half Edgy
1.5 lengths
Chad Lever
Joe Hall
Agincourt Express
1.8 lengths
Chad Lever
David Balfour
Bo Best
0.5 lengths
Jason Holder
Leon Macdonald

Short Priced Tote Favourites

These are losing bets.

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites to make up for the big unders on the tote.

If you regularly get poor tote odds you must lose.

Short priced tote favourites
are losing bets.

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