|Horse racing and
Punt to Win
Continued from previous page.
This horse ran a faster time
There seems to be a common betting view held by many that all you have to do is compare times run by horses over the same distance to find out which horse is better. This betting myth is simplistic and of course does not work.
One racing media tipster, when tipping Troubled Man to beat Rohatyn, pointed out that Troubled Man won a 1000 metres race at his last start in 57.47 seconds but Rohatyn won a 1000 metres race at his last start in only 58.58 seconds, over a second slower.
The problem with that was that Rohatyn's win was at Flemington on March 16 carrying 55.5 kg. but Troubled Man's win was at Caulfield on March 30 carrying 54 kg.
Surely these media tipsters must know that tracks vary in speed? Conditions are also different on different days. Surely these media tipsters must know you cannot make such simplistic comparisons?
Whenever racing media tipsters resort to simply comparing times run by horses on different days and different tracks, they're being as silly as someone drawing a conclusion about different pace bowlers by comparing the bounce and ferocity of pace bowling on a traditional Perth fast bowlers' wicket with the lack of bounce and ferocity of pace bowling on a slow Indian spinners' wicket.
This horse is a "bet to nothing."
I heard that last weekend too when another tipster pronounced a horse as an each way certainty.
What is a "bet to nothing"?
The general view about this myth is that the horse is a place certainty, (to finish in the top three), and at good enough odds so if you bet equal amounts for a win and a place, should your win bet lose you will recover your losses on that bet by getting even money for your place bet.
Ask yourself this question. Why be silly enough to risk your money for win bets on these horses when all you have to do is back these horses for a place each time and you can't lose? I think that dispels the myth of a "bet to nothing."
Quite often the punter has lost the win bet and the loss is doubled because the horse also failed to run a place. Just as there is no such thing as a win certainty so there is no such animal as a place certainty.
This edition of Punt to Win:
It is just about
impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short
priced tote favourites to make up for the big unders on
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