Punt to Win
1. Gerald Ryan
The winners are now adding up for Gerald Ryan. Be on the alert when he freshens up a horse and drops it back in distance.
Last Saturday Trail Of Gold, who had previously raced 30 days earlier over 1900 metres, was dropped back to 1400 metres in a 3YO fillies listed race at Randwick. The filly had strong form over her last four starts - a win and three other runs not further back than two lengths from the winner.
Trail Of Gold won and paid $32.00 on the New South Wales tote.
2. John Hawkes
He successfully switched another horse interstate last Saturday. Dextrous who was a nice maiden winner at Murray Bridge on March 6, over 1200 metres in her first race, turned up at Caulfield for a 2YO Open over 1400 metres.
Despite the break of 38 days, and the significant rise in class, the filly won at tote odds up to $15.70.
It's also becoming apparent that normal or even half normal methods of form assessment do not hold for Hawkes' trained horses.
In the 1100 metres Open Handicap at Caulfield, Suit who has performed creditably right up to Group 1 handicaps, would have been an absolute standout on a firm track.
The seven year old gelding had raced 47 times. 38 of these races had been on Good to Fast rated tracks where he had 12 wins and 11 placings. He had seven starts on Dead going where his record was inferior. He had just raced twice a Slow rated track - both unplaced and had never started on a Heavy rated track.
For horses from most trainers it would be fair to say that they are wet track duffers. Yet on a genuine Slow track at Caulfield Suit came out and won at odds of $13.80.
This edition of Punt to Win:
Get $3.80 Sunline?
It is just about
impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short
priced tote favourites and the poor value tote horses to
make up for the big unders on the tote.
Did you back any of these winners recently?
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