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12/4/2002 edition

Betting Longshots

The form is usually there to back them!

There is nothing better than backing horses at double figure odds. It's also not about guesswork or just fluking a winner. The clues are usually there. How do you find the clues?

1. It's a case of doing enough detective work.
2. Then weighing up the winning chances of the horse compared to the horses it is up against.
3. Then checking to see that you are getting a realistic price.
4. Hoping on raceday the horse is not spruiked around evrywhere in the media. (If plenty of other punters latch on to the same form factors as you those odds will quickly disappear.)

Let's look at Prince Benbara who stormed home to win an Open Handicap at Sandown last Saturday, first up over 1300 metres. He paid up to $16.20 for the win.

1. The five year old gelding had a win and two placings first up. He also won a Listed race at Caulfield over 1700 metres in September last year after a freshen up of seven weeks. So he races well fresh.

2. The Sandown track was rated Good. Prince Benbara only had one win and two placings from 23 starts on a Good track. He had five wins from 10 starts on a rain affected Slow track. So that would seem to rule him out. But a closer look at his recent form would show that he can be very competitive on Good rated tracks.

a) In October last year he finished third in a photo finish behind Elkabayo in the Listed Seymour Cup over 1600 metres on a Good track.
b) In November last year he finished fourth, only beaten two lengths by Little Dozer in the Group 3 Sandown Stakes over 1400 metres on a Good track.
c) He followed that Sandown run by another close fourth at Sandown in November on another Good track, only going down by 1.5 lengths.

3. So Prince Benbara's form on Good rated tracks and at Sandown, six starts for only one placing is also not as bad as it first appears. In fact it is very good for just an Open Handicap.

4. The barrier, 13 in the 13 horse field, looked to be a disadvantage. But there was a straight run of 500 to the first turn. Prince Benbara also gets well back in his races, which is ideal for Sandown.

5. Prince Benbara had top weight of 58kg. The three kilos claim for apprentice Reece Wheeler would help.

Prince Benbara must rate a very realistic winning chance.

Next pages
Betting longshots
More betting myths
Listening to the call of the race - what you need to avoid
Money talks - plunge horses
Future winners at big odds
Betting packages

Back Tote Longshots?


Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $100 bet
Double Dazzle 25.00 37.80 $1280
Henderson Bay
Dance Sally Dance 24.30 30.70 $640
Wet Lips 24.40 29.20 $480
Seattle Ken 12.60 15.10 $250

Short Priced Tote Favourites

These are losing bets.

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and the poor value tote horses to make up for the big unders on the tote.
If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

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