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Punt to Win |
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19/4/2002 edition "Certainty" Beaten There were plenty of big bets put on Shogun Lodge last Saturday at Randwick in the $750,000 Group 1 Weight for Age Queen Elizabeth Stakes run over 2000 metres. Shogun Lodge was backed in from $2.30 to $1.90. The media hype was there too - one commentator we heard said "I can't see anything beating it. It's too good. It'll just win." This sort of attitude was the norm. Put your money on and collect. In the 13 horse field Shogun Lodge looked a standout - but not at those silly odds. There were too many other classy gallopers in the race. Promising four year old gelding Defier won the race with best odds of $5.00 available. Those odds were also no value. Shogun Lodge beat Defier under handicap conditions two weeks earlier. Shogun Lodge then carried 58kg. while Defier only had 51.5 kg. But last Saturday they both carried 58kg. With a massive weight turnaround of 6.5kg. there is no way that Defier could possibly have a 20% winning chance in the race - that is what you need as a minimum if $5.00 is value. Shogun Lodge got well back in the field, never looked like winning, was eased down in the straight by jockey Glen Boss and finished twelfth, beaten by nearly 20 lengths. Shogun Lodge was in a distressed state and had a cardiac irregularity. This had never happened to the horse before. Just another way for punters to lose their money backing "certainties". Something actually going wrong with the horse during the race has to be taken into account when deciding whether the odds on offer are value. Is it ever taken into account? With jumps racing you have to also allow for the possibility of your horse falling at a jump, being brought down by another horse or jumping badly at just one hurdle which could cost many lengths. Shogun Lodge thankfully appears to be well on the way to a complete recovery. This edition of Punt to Win: Get $3.80 Sunline? It is just about
impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short
priced tote favourites and the poor value tote horses to
make up for the big unders on the tote. Did you back any of these winners recently?
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