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26/4/2002 edition

Stable Betting Plunge

Last Saturday at Rosehill there was a huge plunge in a 1200 metres 3YO Open. Omawind, trained by John Shoard at Warwick Farm and ridden by Robert Thompson was plunged from $151.00 to a starting price of $10.00.

The horse had raced once before - in a restricted 3YO event at Canterbury over 1100 metres on February 3. He started at $101.00, settled well back in the 12 horse field and finished a well beaten eighth.

On March 15 he finished fifth in a barrier trial, nothing special.

So what happened? The horse must have grown another set of legs and got a new heart. One thing is for sure - there are plenty of horses who can work like champions but battle to win a maiden. There are also plenty of horses who don't put in during training, but perform on racedays. There is a vast amount of difference between the training track, raceday and the pressure of races.

In the race Omawind settled second, was given every chance by his jockey, but folded in the straight. $151.00 were correct odds.


Worst bet of the day - avoid

In the same 3YO Open, impressive Gai Waterhouse trained gelding Alibarber, who had four wins and two seconds from six starts, was backed in on track from $2.80 to $2.40.

The bet was shocking value. Alibarber rose 2kg. from his last start win by one length on April 6 from 59kg. to the huge impost of 61kg. On top of that he also started from barrier nine in the 10 horse field.

Jockey Chris Munce settled Alibarber midfield, but was trapped wide throughout. Needless to say, the horse finished out of a place.

Talk about a clean up race for the bookies.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Massive stable betting plunge
Save money - avoid these bets
Adelaide Carnival - bookmakers' odds
Betting myths - "tips" to avoid
Money talks - Rosehill plunge horses
Money talks - Flemington plunge horses
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 19/4/2002
Punt to Win index


Betting packages


Back Tote Longshots?

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $100 bet
Past The Skies 52.70 87.10 $3440
Phoenix Park 48.80 79.70 $3090
Unrocel Saint
49.60
61.00
$1140
Built Him 13.00 20.70 $770
Western Waters 26.80 32.10 $530
La Missionaire 12.50 17.30 $480


Warning
Short Priced Tote Favourites

These are losing bets.

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and the poor value tote horses to make up for the big unders on the tote.
If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.


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