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31/12/2013 edition

How to Become a Winning Horse Racing Punter

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How often, as the horses are moving into the barriers for their race have we heard the race caller say something like:

"There's been a big go here on course. It's heavily backed on track. The biggest go all day, there's no doubt."

Let us say this heavily backed horse was plunged from $4.50 to start a short priced $3.00 favourite. Sometimes we see heavily backed horses on track comfortably win their race. However, more often than not the horse fails to win!

But when the heavily plunged horse occasionally wins we regularly hear comments from race callers congratulating themselves, like:

"Have a look at the totes. $2.80, $2.70 and $2.60. Now that was $3.40 when we last updated and I got that message hopefully in time for some of you to follow the course money. That was a very, very big go and it won like a good thing."

Please Note:

Smart punters
who win money long term don't wait until the horses are about to jump to make a rushed phone call to their TAB accounts or to place a rushed wager on the internet simply following the betting ring money!

Long term winning punters
know that at $4.50 you only need a 22% strike rate to break even. Winning punters also know that at the short odds of $3.00 you need a 33% winning strike rate to break even. (Simply divide 100 by the dollar odds.)

Long term winning punters do not back plunged betting ring horses on the tote or online at dollars below the odds that were earlier available in the bookmaker betting ring or earlier available on the online betting exchange.

Suppose these selections plunged from $4.50 to $3.00 win 30% of the time. At $3.00, your punter taking the lowest, plunged odds will be showing a 10% loss on turnover. But your smart punter who got the $4.50 top odds from the bookmaker betting ring or betting exchange will be showing an excellent profit of 35% on turnover!

Remember all the hype about shares leading into the 1987 stock market crash?

Remember how internet stocks, at massively inflated prices, were meant to be such good buying at the peak of the internet stock bubble in 2000 before they crashed?

Horses' odds are no different. Taking the shortest odds about plunged horses is just like buying shares at the peak of a stock market boom.

In our opinion the correct advice race callers should give their listeners is:

"There's been a very big go on this horse at the track. There's absolutely no point now rushing to place a bet. You have missed the best odds and will get big unders. If make these types of wagers you will lose your money over the long term.."

This edition of Punt to Win:
How to become a winning horse racing punter
The Free "Why didn't I back it?" huge winning odds horse racing betting system
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Group 1 horse racing results: 7/12/2013 & 23/11/2013
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 7/12/2013

Betting favourites in small fields: 30/11/2013
Betting favourites in small fields: 23/11/2013
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 60kg.
Punt to Win 23/11/2013
Punt to Win Index - 2000 to Present

On Saturday, 23rd. November, our tipster First By A Nose tipped Padrino, a $51.00 winner and the Free Ratings found a $19,048.40 First Four at Eagle Farm!!

On Saturday, 16th. November, First By A Nose tipped Missing Page, $15.00 winner and Ninth Legion, $7.00 winner!

FREE Tips from First By A Nose
PLUS FREE Top Four Ratings are available for you:

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2013 Melbourne Cup Day
Bookmaker Win Dividends


Get these dividends? Or these bookmaker dividends! Extra Profit $30 bet
Mujadale 15.00 18.70 $111
Bernabeu 10.90 13.00 $63
Chile Express 14.00 16.00 $60
Plucky Belle 15.50 17.30 $54
Oakleigh Girl 5.50 6.50 $30
Richie's Vibe 7.70 8.50 $24
Fiorente 6.90 7.50 $18
Salon Soldier 2.70 3.20 $15
Wistful 4.40 4.80 $12
Moderate 1.90 2.15 $7.50


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