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23/11/2013 edition

Value Betting Horses

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During the Melbourne Cup Spring Carnival a racing commentator noted that "These are great horses" and concluded that "Now is your chance to get great value on whatever you bet in the race."

To put it bluntly, comments like that are absolute nonsense.

How is it possible in a tote market of 120%? It's mathematically impossible! The tote hasn't reduced its take from the pool. However it is possible that punters could get poor value on every horse they backed on the tote in a particular race!

Because a horse is a quality galloper and you can get a price in a race that you wouldn't normally get about it, such as $5.00 or even longer odds, does not mean you are automatically getting "value."

Whether or not you get "value" is purely in relation to the horse's winning chances in the race. It has absolutely nothing to do with the odds available about the horse in previous races when it might have been clearly the standout horse in those races.

Just because many class horses are in the one race does not mean they suddenly all become value bets. To say they do is simplistic nonsense and from an intelligent betting point of view just plain wrong - 100% wrong.

In addition, just look at the huge odds you could get about quality horses that raced against Black Caviar - much bigger odds than when they weren't racing against Black Caviar. These horses, which all lost, weren't suddenly value bets!

1. It is absolutely irrelevant whether the horse was at $3.00 or less at its previous starts.

2. It is also absolutely irrelevant whether that horse has a 50% or 100% winning strike rate. You cannot convert a horse's winning strike rate to odds you should obtain about it in its current race.

3. Mind you that didn't prevent someone years ago from offering punters a cardboard calculator wheel to work out the odds they needed to back a horse which was purely based on the horse's winning strike rate! So if a horse had a 50% winning strike rate then you needed $2.00 (divide 100 by its strike rate). If a horse had a 25% winning strike rate then you need $4.00. That is complete betting garbage.

If you take $5.00 about a class horse racing against a lot of other class horses in a field of 16 you have to correctly evaluate whether that horse should win at least 20% of the time in that field. That is the only way to obtain "value." So if you estimate the horse will win 25% of the time, then you need a minimum of $4.00, so $5.00 is value. But if you calculate the horse should only win that race 10% of the time then $5.00 is shocking value as you need minimum odds of $10.00!

This edition of Punt to Win:
Value betting horses
The Free Improver horse racing betting system
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Group 1 horse racing results: Oaks Day 2013 and 9/11/2013
Group 1 horse racing results: Melbourne Cup Day 2013 & Victoria Derby Day 2013
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 16/11/2013

Betting favourites in small fields: 9/11/2013
Betting favourites in small fields: Victoria Derby Day 2/11/2013
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 60kg.
2013 Melbourne Cup Punt to Win
Punt to Win Index - 2000 to Present

Last Saturday, 16th. November, our tipster First By A Nose tipped Missing Page, $15.00 winner and Ninth Legion, $7.00 winner!

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2013 Melbourne Cup Day
Bookmaker Win Dividends

Horse

Get these dividends? Or these bookmaker dividends! Extra Profit $30 bet
Mujadale 15.00 18.70 $111
Bernabeu 10.90 13.00 $63
Chile Express 14.00 16.00 $60
Plucky Belle 15.50 17.30 $54
Oakleigh Girl 5.50 6.50 $30
Richie's Vibe 7.70 8.50 $24
Fiorente 6.90 7.50 $18
Salon Soldier 2.70 3.20 $15
Wistful 4.40 4.80 $12
Moderate 1.90 2.15 $7.50


 

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