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23/11/2013 edition

Betting Horse Racing Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in our forum over the years about horse racing favourites in small fields. So we've been monitoring horse racing favourites in small fields here. We're now looking at Saturday horse races in the three strongest horse racing cities of Melbourne, famous for the Melbourne Cup, Sydney, where the 2YO Golden Slipper Stakes grabs the horse racing headlines and Brisbane where the Doomben 10,000 is a famous feature horse race.

Most horse races in these cities have a field size of more than seven horses, so it will be interesting to see what happens when the field size is just seven or fewer horses.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the result for punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on Victoria Derby Day, Saturday, 2nd. November, 2013.

Rosehill: Track Good.

R4 $85,000 3YO & UP. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Zaratone
Result: 5th.
Starting price: $4.40
Jockey: Kathy O'Hara
Trainer: Bjorn Baker
Winner: Hidden Warrior
Starting price: $4.80
Top fluctuation: $4.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.90
Jockey: Nathan Berry
Trainer: Paul Perry


Eagle Farm: Track Good.

R1 $50,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2200 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Racing Heart
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $3.80
Jockey: Eddie Wilkinson
Trainer: Brian Smith
Winner: Mukaddamah Son
Starting price: $6.50
Top fluctuation: $6.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.50
Jockey: Glen Colless
Trainer: Gary Duncan

R2 $50,000 2YO. Colts & Geldings. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 7
Equal first: Pinch River
Starting price: $2.25 favourite (paid $1.00)

Top fluctuation: $2.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.00
Jockey: Ryan Wiggins
Trainer: Robert Heathcote
Equal first: Our Rock O'Reilly
Starting price: $6.00 (paid $2.43)
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.00
Jockey: Jim Byrne
Trainer: Pat Duff

R5 $45,000 Colts, Geldings & Entires. Class 6. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Tax Evader
Result: 5th.
Starting price: $3.00
Jockey: Ashley Butler
Trainer: Jeffrey Caught
Winner: Hampden
Starting price: $11.00
Top fluctuation: $11.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $9.30
Jockey: Luke Tarrant
Trainer: Darryl Hansen

This edition of Punt to Win:
Value betting horses
The Free Improver horse racing betting system
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Group 1 horse racing results: Oaks Day 2013 and 9/11/2013
Group 1 horse racing results: Melbourne Cup Day 2013 & Victoria Derby Day 2013
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 16/11/2013

Betting favourites in small fields: 9/11/2013
Betting favourites in small fields: Victoria Derby Day 2/11/2013
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 60kg.
2013 Melbourne Cup Punt to Win
Punt to Win Index - 2000 to Present


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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