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23/11/2013 edition

Betting Horse Racing Favourites
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in our forum over the years about horse racing favourites in small fields. So we've been monitoring horse racing favourites in small fields here. We're now looking at Saturday horse races in the three strongest horse racing cities of Melbourne, famous for the Melbourne Cup, Sydney, where the 2YO Golden Slipper Stakes grabs the horse racing headlines and Brisbane where the Doomben 10,000 is a famous feature horse race.

Most horse races in these cities have a field size of more than seven horses, so it will be interesting to see what happens when the field size is just seven or fewer horses.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results for punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on the final day of the Flemington Melbourne Cup Carnival, Saturday, 9th. November, 2013.

Flemington: Track Dead.

R3 $100,000 4YO & UP. Rating 96. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Sharalam
Result: 5th.
Starting price: $3.10
Jockey: Michael Rodd
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh
Winner: Bel Thor
Starting price: $3.70
Top fluctuation: $3.90
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.40
Jockey: Ben Melham
Trainer: Wez Hunter

Randwick: Track Good.

R1 $85,000 3YO & UP. Rating 85. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Index Linked
Result: 3nd.
Starting price: $1.75
Jockey: Jason Collett
Trainer: Chris Waller
Winner: Capital Commander
Starting price: $3.60
Top fluctuation: $3.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.50
Jockey: Kathy O'Hara
Trainer: Nick Olive

Eagle Farm: Track Good.

R1 $45,000 Rating 85. Handicap.
Distance: 2200 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Volkhere
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $2.30
Jockey: Aidan Holt
Trainer: Robert Heathcote
Winner: Borehole
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.20
Jockey: Luke Tarrant
Trainer: David J. Lawlor

This edition of Punt to Win:
Value betting horses
The Free Improver horse racing betting system
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Group 1 horse racing results: Oaks Day 2013 and 9/11/2013
Group 1 horse racing results: Melbourne Cup Day 2013 & Victoria Derby Day 2013
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 16/11/2013

Betting favourites in small fields: 9/11/2013
Betting favourites in small fields: Victoria Derby Day 2/11/2013
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 60kg.
2013 Melbourne Cup Punt to Win
Punt to Win Index - 2000 to Present

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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