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1/3/2002 edition

Plunge Horses
Money Talks?

Each week we will feature tables showing just how successful the "smart money" was. To qualify a horse must have firmed 5% in the betting market. For example if a horse was backed in from $5.00 (4/1 or 20%) to $4.00 ( 3/1 or 25%) it will qualify. Odds calculator gives you tables.

The jockeys and trainers are also important. You may see some jockeys and trainers consistently bringing home plunges whereas others regularly fail to deliver.

Warwick Farm, Saturday, 23rd. February 2002

Horse, jockey
and trainer

Firmed from % Firm Finish Beaten margin
 
Lupenta 2.30 2.00 5.56 6/6 4.4 lengths
Brian York Gai Waterhouse
 
Plea 2.90 2.50 5.22 5/7 9.3 lengths
Jim Cassidy Graham Rogerson
 
Snowland 2.90 2.30 9.66 1st.  
Chris Munce Gai Waterhouse
 
Defier
9.00
6.00
5.56
2/14
1 length
Rod Quinn
Guy Walter
 

Not one horse firmed 5% in the boookmakers' betting ring on Blue Diamond Stakes Day at Caulfield. That was because the bookmakers were opening their markets to very high percentages and easing the prices out when little or no money came for the horses at those poor value betting odds.

The racing media will regularly tell you there is no money for anything in the betting ring. But don't expect them to tell you that the market opened at 150% so horses should ease in the betting to more realistic prices.

How many in the racing media really understand betting percentages? They are promoted as experts. If that promotion is correct then every one of them should understand betting percentages. If so, it makes no sense to tell us there was no money for anything in the betting ring when prices eased from 150%.

Next page
Future winners at big odds
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Warning
Short Priced Tote Favourites

These are losing bets.

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites to make up for the big unders on the tote.
If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.


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