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1/10/2005 edition

Betting Systems
Beware these Methods

We suggest it is best to avoid selection methods and horse racing betting systems based upon the following ideas:

1. Betting methods based on backing "tote firmers". These betting methods are based on dubious assumptions.

a) That "tote firmers" actually firm in the bookmakers' betting ring. That is not always the case. Sometimes punters see bigger tote odds compared to what the bookies are offering and so back the horses on the tote hoping to get those better odds. As the tote pushes the price in those punters often find they are not getting better odds, but instead they end up taking worse odds than the bookmakers were offering.

b) That backing horses after they have significantly firmed in the betting will make a long term profit. There's nothing further from the truth. If a horse firms from $5.00 to $3.00 and you get the $5.00 you only need a 20% winning strike rate to break even. Better than a 20% winning strike rate and you make a profit. But if you get the $3.00 you need a 33.33% winning strike rate to break even on that same horse! Get a 20% winning strike rate and instead of breaking even like the punters who took $5.00 you would actually have lost a whopping 40% on turnover.

c) That any odds about a winner are good odds because it won and you collect. This is statistical nonsense, as shown by the above example. No horse is a 100% certainty so odds do matter.

d) That "tote firmers" are caused by "smart inside money" being put on the tote late. There is no validity to this. "Smart" money takes the best odds. It doesn't bet against itself on the tote.

If these tote fluctuations indicate betting ring money for the horses, and that is not guaranteed, then nothing is more stupid than taking low tote odds compared to the odds punters got in the betting ring.

For example, punters may have got $3.50 in the bookmakers' betting ring about a horse that starts at $2.50 with the bookies. Tote punters see the horse with tote flutuations come in from $3.70 to $2.00 and back it. That's like being at the track, doing absolutely nothing while you see the horse firm from $3.50 to $2.50, then just as the horses are about to jump walking up to a bookie and saying, "Put me on. I know you are now offering $2.50. But I'll take $2.00."

What a joke. You have absolutely no chance of long term success betting like that. Consistently backing "tote firmers" is a guaranteed way to lose money over the long term.
Continued next page - click here

This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting systems - beware these tipping and selection methods
Get those betting odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: Randwick
Racing results for horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 24/9/2005
Punt to Win index


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