24/9/2005 edition

Horse Racing Betting Tips

See what is common about the form of the following well bet horses from the Group 1 Underwood Stakes meeting held on a Heavy track at Caulfield last Saturday.

Tirdlettar:
TF (top bookmaker fluctuation) $4.00
SP (starting price) $4.00
Result: 2/8 (2nd. in a field eight.)
One start on a Heavy rated track. Finished third as a $3.00 favourite at Cheltenham.

Cocinero:
TF $3.70
SP $3.70
Result: 5/8
One start on a Heavy rated track. Finished second as a $1.80 favourite at Cranbourne.

Chetwynd South:
TF $4.00
SP $2.90
Result: 5/9
One start on a Heavy rated track. Finished second as a $5.00 favourite at Caulfield.

We Can't Say That:
TF $3.70
SP $3.60
Result: 4/11
Four starts on a Heavy rated track. Four wins.

Tirdlettar, Cocinero and Chetwynd South were the only horses at Caulfield to start below $4.00 that had raced on a Heavy rated track and had not already won on a Heavy rated track.

Punters will regularly take short odds on horses that have not won on Heavy tracks because these horses have finished close. But near enough is not good enough. There is a very handy rule of thumb:

Horses that lose on Heavy tracks keep losing on Heavy tracks.

Also note the stewards' report for Cocinero:
"P Mertens, rider of Cocinero, stated that the gelding did not handle the track conditions and changed stride on a number of occasions throughout the event."

So why have we included We Can't Say That in the above list of four horses?
Continued next page - click here

This edition of Punt to Win:
Caulfield's heavy horse racing track - betting advice
Get those betting odds
The Melbourne Cup Carnival horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: Rosehill and Caulfield
Racing results for horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 17/9/2005
Punt to Win index

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