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24/9/2005 edition

Handicapping Tips
Weight and Class

We're all used to hearing "The horse has the class," to justify why a horse handicapped with a high weight should win. Similarly we're told "It's a 54 minimum. So the horse is only six kilos above the minimum."

Those sort of comments do not show an understanding of how handicaps affect most horses. The more weight, the less class a horse will have. Give a horse enough weight and it will have no class.

By the time horses have to carry 59kg. (60 with the safety vest), many become very dubious betting propositions at short odds. Similarly with jumpers - 70kg. (71 with the safety vest) is a very tough proposition.

The table below shows how horses that carried 59kg. or more and were supported in the bookmakers' betting ring market - with a starting price of $11.00 or shorter - fared last Saturday. (The safety vest is not included in the weight.) We're updating each week. It's certainly worth looking at this information over the long term.

Caulfield 17/9/2005
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Blessum
59kg.
1
1200
$9.50
6/8
Eagle Farm 17/9/2005
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Lachlan River
59kg.
6
1815
$1.60fav.
1/6
Moonee Valley 10/9/2005
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Raid The Royals
59kg.
10
1000
$5.00fav.
5/13
Doomben 3/9/2005
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Power Hunt
60.5kg.
3
1350
$4.00fav.
10/10
Consular
62kg.
7
1200
$6.00
1/9
 

This edition of Punt to Win:
Caulfield's heavy horse racing track - betting advice
Get those betting odds
The Melbourne Cup Carnival horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: Rosehill and Caulfield
Racing results for horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 17/9/2005
Punt to Win index


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You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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