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24/9/2005 edition

Horse Racing Betting Tips

Continued from previous page - click here

For a very simple reason. We Can't Say That started as $3.60 favourite in the last race of the day. Anyone who could read a formguide knew that We Can't Say That had won four starts on Heavy rated tracks plus was undefeated on Heavy rated tracks.

When something looks so obvious for most punters you can guarantee getting under the odds. Surely you couldn't expect generous odds on the tote or from the bookmakers when punters were trying to "get out", as We Can't Say That looked the obvious bet in the last race of the day.

But delve a little deeper into the form:

1. We Can't Say That was a 5YO mare taking on Open Class gallopers in a Listed Handicap.

2. We Can't Say That's best win on a Heavy track was two starts ago in a midweek Mares Class 6 race at Sandown. She had raced 20 times for six wins. You could hardly say this mare was rapidly rising through the grades.

3. There is a massive jump in class from winning a restricted midweek mares' race to winning a Saturday Open Class Listed Handicap.

We Can't Say That was clearly a false favourite.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Caulfield's heavy horse racing track - betting advice
Get those betting odds
The Melbourne Cup Carnival horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: Rosehill and Caulfield
Racing results for horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 17/9/2005
Punt to Win index


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