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1/11/2008 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Continued from previous page

Here are the results from Cox Plate Day, Saturday, 25th. October.

Morphettville: Track Good

R1 $25,000 2YO. Open. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: The Annihilator
Result: third
Starting price: $2.25
Jockey: Ivan Culliver
Trainer: Quinton Scott
Winner: Winning Hand
Starting price: $9.00
Top fluctuation: $9.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $9.60
Jockey: Chad Lever
Trainer: David Hayes

R2 $22,000 3YO Fillies. Rs2mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Exalted Keetah
Result: third
Starting price: $2.50
Jockey: Donna Karrigg
Trainer: Jim Smith
Winner: Bella Leah
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $2.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.60
Jockey: Simon Price
Trainer: Paul Seater

R3 $22,000 Rst86. Handicap.
Distance: 2019 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Sun Dog
Result: second
Starting price: $2.30
Jockey: Matthew Neilson
Trainer: David Jolly
Winner: The Ozie Boy
Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $2.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.90
Jockey: Chad Lever
Trainer: Byron Cozamanis

R4 $22,000 3YO and upward. Rs2mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Falvelon's Dream
Result: first

Starting price: $2.25
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.50
Jockey: Scott Bailey
Trainer: Stuart Gower

This edition of Punt to Win:
Melbourne Cup betting tips and facts
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
The Melbourne Cup horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: Cox Plate Day
Betting favourites in small fields: Caulfield Cup Day
Betting favourites in small fields: Caulfield Guineas Day
Betting favourites in small fields: Epsom Handicap Day
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 25/10/2008
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 18/10/2008
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 11/10/2008 & 4/10/2008
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 4/10/2008
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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