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2/11/2001 edition

Horse Racing Tips

We didn't realise that Sky racing's Adelaide race caller is a form expert who understands value betting? He said the following last Saturday, just before the first at Cheltenham, an eight horse 3YO restricted race over 1450 metres.

"$9.40. Terrific value the five."

The "five" happened to be Premonish.

1. This gelding was beaten by 12 lengths at his previous start.

2. He was dropping back in distance from 1800 metres to 1450 metres. A big disadvantage.

3. He had never won a race from 12 starts.

4. Premonish settled midfield, but never got into the race and finished a well beaten sixth in the eight horse field.

In our opinion, Premonish was not "value". The race caller also ignored his "value" runner's dismal effort. No mention after the race about his "value" tip flopping.

A horse is "value" if the price available is at odds better than the horse's chances of winning.

A horse is "poor value" if the price available is at odds worse than the horse's chances of winning.

Nothing else.

Put simply, a horse can be $6.00 in the bookmakers' betting ring and $10.00 on the tote or vice versa and be poor value at both prices, $6.00 and $10.00.


Cheltenham plodders' race

Their Open Handicap over 2250 metres, a typically weak and unreliable betting affair, was won by He's Back On Track who firmed from $3.50 to $2.60. Despite being attacked early for the lead, He's Back On Track led all the way and won by over four lengths. A very good win by the nine year old gelding.

That's right, nine years old and a short priced favourite in an 11 horse field. Punters were fortunate to get it right this time and have a nice collect when He's Back On Track won his ninth race from 58 starts.

Smart punters we know certainly weren't interested in taking $2.60 about an unreliable nine year old gelding in a very ordinary 2250 metres race at Cheltenham. They reckon there are much better betting races to put their money on.

Next pages
Future winners at big odds
Four betting traps to avoid

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Warning
Short Priced Tote Favourites

These are losing bets.
Look at the table below and see the percentages lost backing short priced tote favourites compared with bookmaker betting ring prices.

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites to make up for the big unders on the tote.
If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Did you back any of these winners recently?
If you did, see the prices you should have got.

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra percentage won Extra Profit $100 bet
Captain Test 4.00 8.00 133% $400
Rose Beat 2.70 4.50 106% $180
Greensward 4.00 5.50 50% $150
Omens 3.60 5.00 65% $140
Mistegic 3.50 4.80 52% $130
Marstic 4.80 6.00 32% $120
He's Back On Track 2.40 3.50 79% $110
Trinity College 2.80 3.80 56% $100
Comforts 2.80 3.80 56% $100
Descendant 2.80 3.80 56% $100
Pennywort 1.90 2.60 89% $70
Planchet 1.60 2.00 67% $40

Back Tote Longshots?

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $100 bet
Broker's Point 16.00 26.60 $1060
Roaring Forties 24.70 30.80 $610
Crackerjack's Hope 20.00 25.70 $570
McLaren Vale 14.80 20.20 $540
Lord Denning 16.80 21.70 $490
La Bella Dama 34.90 39.00 $410
Silver Truce 16.50 20.10 $360
Sir Breakfast 14.10 16.70 $260
Frere Jacques 9.00 11.40 $240
Weasel Will 10.10 12.00 $190


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