4/1/2002 edition

Small Fields
No Tote Trifecta Value Bets

Tote win betting on outsiders in small fields often gives you big unders compared to bookmaker betting ring odds.

In that four horse Cheltenham race Dinmont paid tote win odds as low as $6.20 on SuperTab compared to $10.00 freely available in the bookmaker betting ring!

Some punters will also box all the horses in a trifecta because "You can't lose." More than one punter has actually said that to me when proudly announcing their foolish bets. What these punters really mean is "I have given up trying to make a profit backing horses. At least this way I won't lose my entire bet."

When you consider that neither of the two short priced favourites won the race, then you will see that the trifecta payout was very poor value. On SuperTab it was $22.60. That is less than the $24.00 cost of boxing the four runners!

Imagine if one of the fancied runners did win. The trifecta would pay peanuts. The seventh race at Doomben, a 2YO Listed event over 1200 metres also only had four runners. Sunday Joy started at $2.60 and won the race. Next was Sir Breakfast, $2.35 followed by Obsession at $2.25. The despised outsider of the field, Sure To Roar, $201.00, much shorter on the totes, finished last 17 lengths behind the third horse.

On the Queensland tote the trifecta paid $7.50. Box all four runners for $24.00 and you get a significant loss. Box the three well supported runners, as I am sure many punters did, and it cost $6.00 to get a return of $7.50. That is like backing a horse for the win at $1.25!! Hardly value.

If you liked Sunday Joy, instead of taking the short odds for the win you could have taken it as a win standout in a trifecta with Obsession and Sir Breakfast for both second and third. The $2.00 outlay returned $7.50 which is equivalent to win odds of $3.75. The problem with this type of betting is you do not have any control over your odds. The odds look fine after the race, but you do not know that before you place your bets.

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The horse has the class
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Warning
Short Priced Tote Favourites
These are losing bets.
Look at the table below and see the percentages lost backing short priced tote favourites compared with the top official bookmaker betting ring prices.

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