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4/5/2001 edition

Betting Backmarkers

There was a heavy media push for Paternal at Caulfield. At his previous start in Sydney only two weeks earlier he was beaten by nearly five lengths over 1400 metres. At Caulfield, because he dropped considerably in class, he rose 3.5kg. to 58.5kg. He also was dropping back in distance to 1100 metres.

We heard the reasoning before the race that because the track was rain affected the pace would not be a problem. Punters fell for it hook, line and sinker. Paternal was sent out at the short price of only $3.50. He was beaten for speed and carrying 58.5kg. never sighted, finishing a well beaten seventh in the nine horse field.

Sure, the pace was no problem. Good one racing media.


Talking about pace

The same problem stopped Show A Heart from winning a Group 2 Weight for Age race at Doomben over 1200 metres last Saturday. Only two weeks earlier he raced over 1600 metres in the $2,400,000 Group 1 Doncaster Handicap at Randwick.

As a result, at Doomben he was beaten hopelessly for early speed, got well out of his ground and looked no chance. Because this is a potentially brilliant horse who is capable of running outstanding sectionals, he absolutely flew over the last 200 metres making up at least seven lengths and finished second at $6.00. Still skinny odds.

Had Show A Heart's previous race been over 1200 metres two or three weeks earlier he would have bolted in the Doomben race.


The Hind wins!

That grand old performer The Hind, who seems to have been around for years, (he won the 3200 metres Adelaide Cup in May 1998 as a three year old) won the 2400 metres Group 3 Rain Lover Plate at Cheltenham racetrack on Saturday.

His previous win was in April 1999. Sure, he has put in plenty of good runs since against smart opposition, but his record before Saturday's race was five wins and five placings from 40 starts.

Punters took $3.50 about The Hind on Saturday. Those sort of odds about a horse who hasn't won in three years and with such a poor strike rate do not appeal to me.


Viscount absolutely amazing

Two year old colt, Viscount's win in the $500,000 Group 1 Moet and Champagne Stakes at Randwick racetrack had to be seen to be believed.

At the 200, upset by a flock of seagulls, he veered horizontally right across the track. Jockey Rod Quinn did an amazing job to stay in the saddle. He probably only managed it because he has his irons a little longer than most jockeys today, who ride very short.

Rod Quinn got Viscount going again and the colt won by nearly two lengths. A great piece of horsemanship and that colt is surely something special.


"They've tried quite a few horses"

That's what the race caller, Greg Miles, told us as the horses were about to jump in the sixth at Moonee Valley on Anzac Day. So we thought we'd check out the official bookmakers' betting ring fluctuations to see what horses were "tried".

Quite revealing.
1. The favourite and winner, Lady Marion had firmed from $5.50 to $5.00.
2. Grand Seattle was backed in from $7.50 to $6.00, not a major go.
3. There was a little specking on the Heavy, rain affected track for the dry tracker, a Rory's Jester mare called Whoopi Ride, who firmed from $15.00 to $13.00 and finished ninth, beaten by 10 lengths.

Conclusion. There was nothing really "tried".

What we would like someone to tell us is who are "they", the punters who have "tried" all these horses, who Greg Miles was referring to?

Winning punters? Professionals?
We haven't heard of any professionals who would back Lady Marion on the tote and get $4.30 when $5.00 is freely available at the same time in the betting ring. On a $500 winning bet they missed out on $350 and compared with top betting ring odds were $600 poorer.

Next Pages
Simple guidelines to tip winners
Hype horse does it again

Deadly betting combination
Moonee Valley and Caulfield racetracks
And more...


Top Odds Are Important

If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Did you back any of these winners last week?
If you did, see the prices you should have got

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $100 bet
The Red Dimple 9.00 4.50 $450
Ozioziozi 4.00 6.00 $200
Heather 5.10 7.00 $190
Big Pat 4.70 6.00 $130
Front Row 4.70 6.00 $130
Bogart 2.60 3.80 $120
Lady Marion 4.30 5.50 $120
Secret Liasons 5.30 6.50 $120
Almighty Yallah 5.20 6.00 $80
Aflac 2.80 3.50 $70
Fetes Galantes 3.20 3.80 $60
Gay Adventure 3.30 3.80 $50
Portsmouth 2.20 2.70 $50


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