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5/4/2002 edition

New Zealand Horses
What's Wrong?

Should you avoid betting these horses?

In recent years horses coming here from New Zealand with good formlines have won more than their fair share of races and proved very good bets at generous odds. Not so this year. (We're not counting Sunline!)

Last Saturday in the 2400 metres Group 2 Chairman's Handicap at Randwick there was a huge plunge on Hail who had some outstanding Group 1 New Zealand form. Hail, who had seven wins from 17 starts, was plunged from $7.00 to $3.80 but finished a well held eighth in the 18 horse field.

Jim Cassidy had difficulty getting a run in the straight on Hail, which can explain the result. But the starting odds of $3.80 were very skinny considering the size of the field. The bigger the field, the more likely horses will be held up for runs or if a leader be taken on by another horse.

In the same race five year old New Zealand gelding Armstrong aso met with support, firming from $8.00 to $6.50. This gelding had eight wins from 19 starts, Scott Seamer to ride and only two starts back on March 2 was a Group 1 winner in New Zealand with 58kg. compared to only 55.5kg. on Saturday.

No excuses for Armstrong who finished fifth, beaten by three lengths and was given every chance by Scott Seamer.

At Caulfield King Wyndham was first up over 1200 metres in an Open Handicap after a six months' spell. This four year old gelding had won five of his six races in New Zealand.

Now trained by Tony McEvoy and with Stephen Baster in the saddle, big things were expected of him. Sent out the $4.00 favourite, he never got into the race and finished eighth of nine, beaten by five lengths.

I guess the key is to only back these horses at very generous odds. Every now and again one of them will get under most punter's guards and win at juicy double figure odds.

Next pages
Money talks - plunge horses
Future winners at big odds
Betting packages


Back Tote Longshots?

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $100 bet
Henderson Bay
30.70
38.60
$790
Dance Sally Dance 24.30 30.70 $640
Wet Lips 24.40 29.20 $480
Final Demand 9.80 13.80 $400
Yuppie 9.50 12.50 $300


Warning
Short Priced Tote Favourites

These are losing bets.

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and the poor value tote horses to make up for the big unders on the tote.
If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.


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