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5/10/2001 edition

Media Trifecta Tips

Look at what Sky Racing's "trifecta guru", Brendan Farnell said last Saturday about the third race at Moonee Valley, where there was an odds on tote favourite Tully Zeal:

"....Odds on at the moment and it's the one which perhaps on value should be stood out for quinellas, exactas and trifectas. Such a short quote and in such a small field which unfortunately has been a bit decimated through scratchings.."

Did Brendan Farnell recommend that Tully Zeal should be your standout selection to win in a trifecta play? Was it an attempt to get "value" out of a very short priced horse?

That Moonee Valley race had only six horses in it. In such a small field it is generally betting suicide to have a tote odds on favourite as your standout to win. Indeed, in races like that if the horse finishes anywhere in the first three, trifecta dividends are decimated.

As it was Tully Zeal finished fourth. No quinella, no exacta, no trifecta by taking Tully Zeal as a standout. Guess Brendan Farnell missed out there.

The trifecta was filled in order by the fourth, third and second horses in the market. On SuperTab it paid $83.40. Not particularly generous considering the fourth ranked horse out of six won and the short priced favourite missed a place. Throw in Tully Zeal into second or third and the payout is not worth getting. Have Tully Zeal win and the dividend would be so paltry you've got to ask yourself, "Why bother?"

Brendan Farnell probably should have said the following:

"This small six horse race is not very good for taking most trifecta combinations. I recommend you save your money for a more suitable race."


Trifectas - avoid doing this

Have a look at the sixth race at Moonee Valley last Saturday. It was a 10 horse race. The $2.30 favourite won and two of the next three horses in the market finished second and third.

The trifecta paid a paltry $40.50 on SuperTab. Why? Because most punters boxed the four most popular horses in the market. That cost them $24.00. There was a profit of $16.50. To break even with that trifecta betting strategy those punters have to obtain a phenomenal trifecta strike rate which is quite unrealistic. At an average collect of $40.50, 60% winning trifectas are needed.

Some races are just poor betting races for trifectas. Smart punters stay out of those races.


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