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5/10/2001 edition

Horse Racing Betting Strategy

Jockey Watch

The Lee Freedman trained Bush Padre put in a big run at Moonee Valley in an Open Handicap on September 15 ridden by Damien Oliver and finished second carrying 57kg. He started at $3.00.

Last Saturday, down a little in class, he rose 3kg. to 60kg. in a Welter at the same track. But instead of Damien Oliver he was ridden by three kilos claiming apprentice, Vincent Caddy. That meant he had the same weight as at his previous start. The media line was of course that Bush Padre came in well at the weights with the three kilos claim. Fine if you ignore the jockeys! But how many kilos difference are there in the riding skills of Damien Oliver compared to Vincent Caddy?

Bush Padre was sent out the short priced $2.50 favourite in this 12 horse, 1600 metres race - tote punters had him odds on at the jump. Vincent Caddy settled Bush Padre midfield on the rails, seven lengths from the lead. On the tight Moonee Valley track with its short straight, if you are midfield on the rails you are often in trouble. That's not where you want to see a $2.50 favourite knowing the three kilos apprentice will have to find a way out for the horse.

Vincent Caddy, no doubt sensing trouble, made his move quickly at the 800 on the rails. At the 600 in an attempt to take the lead, Vincent Caddy went for a narrow rails opening. Bush Padre was checked, lost momentum and lost ground. Despite that the horse fought on well to take the lead on the home turn, though under severe pressure. He finished third, beaten just under half a length.

When a horse has the same weight as at the previous start only because of an apprentice's claim ignore the media tipster cliche that "the horse comes in well at the weights with the claim". As often as not the horse is in reality kilos worse off due to the inferior riding skills of the apprentice. Vincent Caddy is not Damien Oliver

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Top Odds Are Important

If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

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Lonhro 2.10 3.00 82% $90
Gold Class 2.10 2.60 46% $50

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Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $100 bet
French Movie Star 16.10 22.40 $630
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Provident 14.10 16.30 $220

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