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7/6/2008 edition

Gambling Strategy and Betting Tips

Some time ago we discussed betting with a very successful professional. This person obviously does not want to be identified over the internet, so we will call him Simon. Here is some of the betting advice from Simon.

Stop betting on the day when you've won a set amount

Simon said, "It is not logical, it is absurd in my opinion to stop betting after a predetermined amount of profits have been made for the day."

I asked, "Why is that? Many punters aim to take out a set profit for the day and then stop as a winner. Surely there is no harm in that?"

To which Simon replied, "All punters should know in advance their likely wagers for the day and how they are going to be staked. The only qualification needed is that the right odds are obtained about each selection. It is easy these days to get top prices about your wagers from bookmakers to betting exchanges. Even the tote. There is so much competition out there."

Simon then added, "If your selections and staking of them are any good then your future selections for the day do not know that you have won earlier in the day. Whether they win or lose has absolutely nothing to do with what happened earlier in the day. Their results are completely independent of what happened earlier. I have never stopped my betting for the day because of some randomly set dollar profit amount for the day being made. Over the long term to do so would have cost me a lot of money, not saved me money."

However, Simon did admit that there were some valid reasons to stop betting as a winner when you were a set amount in front. Here they are:

1. It's good psychologically to win. Similarly, for many punters it's not good psychologically to see their day's profits disappear, even when betting in an organised manner.

2. If punters are "doing the form" from race to race - definitely not recommended - then they should stop when a set amount in front, as most of those punters will lose the profits and more by day's end.

3. Many punters who start out in a disciplined manner, with selections made before the races start, do not have the strict discipline needed once they are showing good profits for the day and will then bet up, or in some other way change their future bets. There's nothing worse than winning with a number of predetermined $100 bets and then going and losing everything on one of your random selections by making a spur of the moment large bet, say $1,000, instead of betting $100. Or by putting everything on some horse you never intended to back because you heard a whisper, or saw a betting plunge on it.

4. Just to emphasise the point about discipline, Simon also mentioned why so many punters overbet favourites and cannot successfully wager on horses at big double figure odds. He added, "It all comes down to strike rate. Backing winners every few bets turns out to be far more important for most punters than backing winners at huge odds where by definition there must be a low strike rate. There is an inability to understand the maths of betting that causes most punters to abandon any successful long shot betting method. If they are backing horses at $20.00 and $30.00 they fail to understand that losing runs at times of 20, 30 and more are nothing special but to be expected.''

This edition of Punt to Win:
Professional horse racing betting tips
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
The Wide Barrier horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 31/5/2008
Betting favourites in small fields: 24/5/2008
Betting favourites in small fields: 17/5/2008
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 17/5/2008
Punt to Win index

2007 Melbourne Cup Carnival Winners
Best Tote Odds


Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $10 bet
Distant Melody 26.00 49.90 $239
Montechoro 15.00 22.30 $73
Efficient 17.00 24.10 $71
Sculptor 21.00 24.90 $39
Partiva 21.00 24.30 $33
Count To Zero 13.00 15.70 $27


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