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7/6/2008 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 31st. May, when the $400,000 3YO Fillies Group 1 Queensland Oaks was held at Eagle Farm.

Rosehill: Track Good

R1 $70,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1300 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Bhutane Dane
Result: first

Starting price: $1.60
Top fluctuation: $1.75
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.60
Jockey: Larry Cassidy
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

R2 $70,000 3YO and upward. Welter. Handicap.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Master Magic
Result: sixth
Starting price: $3.60
Jockey: Peter Robl
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
Winner: Western Beau
Starting price: $26.00
Top fluctuation: $41.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $19.00
Jockey: Craig Agnew
Trainer: Marc Conners

R3 $70,000 3YO and upward. Rst91. Handicap.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Synonym
Result: first

Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.60
Jockey: Mitch Beadman
Trainer: Gerald Ryan


Eagle Farm: Track Heavy

R3 $250,000 Group 2. Weight for Age.
Distance: 2200 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Rampant Lion
Result: second
Starting price: $2.70
Jockey: Shane Scriven
Trainer: Lindsay Gough
Winner: Scenic Shot
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.00
Jockey: Glen Colless
Trainer: Danny Morton


Morphettville: Track Dead

R1 $22,000 Rst91. Handicap.
Distance: 2045 metres
Number of runners: five
Equal Favourite: Twin Town
Result: second
Starting price: $3.00
Jockey: Clare Lindop
Trainer: Mick Price
Equal Favourite: Savlate
Result: fourth
Starting price: $3.00
Jockey: Chad Lever
Trainer: Richard Jolly
Winner: Dol De Lago
Starting price: $10.00
Top fluctuation: $10.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $8.00
Jockey: Adrian Patterson
Trainer: Ricky Bruhn

R3 $22,000 Rst86. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Hieronymus
Result: first

Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $2.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.60
Jockey: Matthew Neilson
Trainer: Lloyd Kennewell

This edition of Punt to Win:
Professional horse racing betting tips
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
The Wide Barrier horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 31/5/2008
Betting favourites in small fields: 24/5/2008
Betting favourites in small fields: 17/5/2008
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 17/5/2008
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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