7/9/2001 edition

Horse Racing Betting Tips

John Hawkes' favourites

With Hot Riff $2.00 ($1.80 TABs) and Lonhro $1.90 ( $1.70 and $1.60 TABs) both winning, two John Hawkes' trained "good things" won in quick succession. It was too good to continue. Next city race, at Cheltenham, Ghost Flight sent out at $1.90 was under pressure by the home turn and was well beaten.

Then of course Viscount $2.80, after being given every chance, weakened over the last 100 in the Group 2 Weight For Age Chelmsford Stakes over 1400 metres at Randwick. A Heavy track winner, he must have found the 50kg. too much of a burden!

As we keep saying, if you consistently back "good things" from the John Hawkes' stable without doing your homeowrk you'll lose money. Look for his horses at odds.

Good one, Sport 927

In an 1100 metres Group 3 3YO race Ugachaka, resuming from a spell, was sent out the $3.50 favourite ($3.00 on SuperTab). Lee Freedman was the trainer and Damien Oliver the jockey.

In the 15 horse field, with plenty of first up runners and on a track which was bordering on Heavy, the filly never had around a 30% winning chance. Ugachaka finished ninth, beaten by eight lengths! If punters back horses with Damien Oliver on them at silly odds then they will lose. Punters will only win long term backing his rides provided they get realistic odds.

Talk about also contributing to the Ugachaka hype. Sport 927 kept playing the jingle "Ugachaka, Ugachaka, Ugachaka..." Maybe Sport 927 can claim that it livens up their radio show. Well, if any of their "experts" backed the filly because of that repetitive jingle, they probably aren't singing it now.

No wet track form - bet at your peril

In the next race at Caulfield, a 1200 metres Open Handicap, Mr. Murphy, the Group 1 Australian Guineas winner, resumed from a spell of nearly five months. He had raced 14 times for six wins and three seconds. Lee Freedman was the trainer and Damien Oliver the jockey.

Consider these points:
1. Nine of the 14 horse field were first up!
2. Mr. Murphy was a Danehill gelding. That means a wet track risk.
3. He was carrying top weight of 60kg., three kilos more than the next horse in the race!
4. Mr. Murphy never raced on a track worse than Good.
5. By the time of the race the track was Heavy. It was downgraded from Slow after the race.

Considering all those points his $7.00 starting price was not generous. Far from it. Yet some in the media pushed the horse because of his "class" and said you'll get "good value" about him because some punters might be scared off by the 60kg.

Mr. Murphy finished a well beaten ninth. The run should be ignored. He is much better than that.

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Future winners at big odds
Spring horses to follow

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