Once races get to 2000 metres and more they often become much more unpredictable. That is doubly so in Adelaide where you also have to contend with tight bookmaker betting ring prices. Starting price markets often around 130% . Top fluctuation markets often around 120%.

That also means a straight out top fluctuation bet on Adelaide racing has a good chance of being poor value for the punter. You don't want to take a top fluctuation bet when the top fluctuation is a price way under the horse's true chances of winning. The bet is even worse if a percentage, say 5% or 10% of your winnings is deducted by the bookie who you place the bet with.

You have a decent chance, of course, if two conditions apply:

1. You give a minimum price with your top fluctuation bet. That means when the Adelaide bookies serve up nonsense prices your bet will probably be off.

2. You receive the exact top fluctuation - no deductions. You simply cannot afford to lose 5% or 10% on every one of your winning bets. It sure mounts up. Noone refunds you a percentage on your losing bets!

(Yes the Adelaide bookies can complain to us till the sun sets in the morning. Until they put up consistently competitve markets they will be criticised on this site. Brisbane bookies' odds are not too flash either and are getting worse.)

Last Saturday there was a very ordinary 2000 metres Open Handicap at Victoria Park.

In the eight horse field Wayne Kerford, jockey of five year old gelding Inflewinzer, was able to lead, set a slow pace and win. The gelding carried the same weight and was beaten by five lengths in a weaker, restricted race the week before starting at double figure odds!

Class runner of the field All The Action, carrying top weight of 56kg., started in barrier six. It must have been too much of a challenge for his jockey Garry Hoobin. All The Action, who started at $3.20 was wide throughout and finished a comfortably beaten sixth.

The starting price market for this race was a "generous" 121% from the Adelaide bookies with top fluctuation a "generous" 115%.

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Warning
Short Priced Tote Favourites
These are losing bets.
Look at the table below and see the percentages lost backing short priced tote favourites compared with the top official bookmaker betting ring prices.