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8/3/2008 edition

Bet For Value And Win

Continued from previous page.

Punting is about VALUE. Value means the price you get for a horse is better than its chances of winning (however you work that out).

The total winning chances of all the horses in a race equals 100% because there always is a winner. Betting markets are set at higher percentages so as to give a profit margin for the bookmaker or tote.

Our odds calculator gives you all the market percentages. To work it out for yourself simply divide 100 by the dollar odds. So for example, if a horse is $2.00 its market percentage is 50%. You need to win 50% of the time to break even.

On many occasions when you work out your own market to 100% your opinion will be very different to the bookmaker and TAB market. You will find prices offered higher than your estimate of the horse's winning chances. They are the times to bet. If your difference of opinion to the market is right enough times then you will win.

Winning comes down to that basic factor.

Only bet when you have an advantage. It doesn't matter how you work it out, but make sure you have an advantage and you know what it is and why it exists before you bet.

Too many people have too many bets on horses they like and think will win, but in reality there is no advantage in betting. In the long run these bets will lose you money. We have to remember that from the start the market is stacked against us. Back every horse at $5.00 and you will lose. You have to be certain that the next horse you back at $5.00, should not have been given to you at $5.00. That it should in fact really have been at shorter odds than $5.00.

Making money is not just about backing winners. It's about betting on horses that are going to win more often than their price indicates. That is a big difference.

If you back horses at $2.00 then you MUST win at least 50% of the time to break even.

If you back horses at $3.00 then you MUST win at least 33.3% of the time to break even.

If you back horses at $4.00 then you MUST win at least 25% of the time to break even.

If you back horses at $5.00 then you MUST win at least 20% of the time to break even.

Ask yourself before you next place a bet, what's my advantage in backing this horse? Why do I think it has a better chance than the market suggests? If you can't answer that then you probably shouldn't be betting in the race.

Most punters spend time trying to work out how to find winners and that's why their chase never ends. To win you need to concentrate on finding betting situations where you get value.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Bet for value and win money!
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
The Trifecta Surprise horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 1/3/2008
Betting favourites in small fields: 23/2/2008
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 1/3/2008 & 23/2/2008
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 23/2/2008
Punt to Win index


2007 Melbourne Cup Carnival Winners
Best Tote Odds

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $10 bet
Distant Melody 26.00 49.90 $239
Montechoro 15.00 22.30 $73
Efficient 17.00 24.10 $71
Sculptor 21.00 24.90 $39
Partiva 21.00 24.30 $33
Count To Zero 13.00 15.70 $27


 

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