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8/3/2008 edition

Reann $17.00 Wins Blue Diamond Stakes

Bet for value and win money!

Many punters treat betting on horses like playing and betting on roulette.
Standard roulette systems keep increasing bets until a set number combination like 'black" or "odds" comes up, when the player is meant to quit a winner.

Because the odds are always against the player, as the house has a zero, sometimes two zeros, these methods are doomed to fail. The player is always getting poor value and when the long losing run comes any past profits will disappear.

In addition these loss chasing methods can quickly fall into a hole when they run into house table limits.

The only way you can win long term with any horse racing selection method is if you obtain bets that are real value. If not the bets will lose long term.

What is a value bet?

Let's have a look at the Blue Diamond winner, Reann to illustrate what a value bet is.

This David Hayes trained colt was an outstanding value bet in the Blue Diamond Stakes at Caulfield because:

1. David Hayes and jockey Dwayne Dunn have an outstanding winning record in the race.

2. Reann had two wins and a second from its three starts - so it certainly had ability.

3. First up from a spell on 26th. January Reann had a very soft win by five lengths at the same track.

4. Punters just got sidetracked by other horses in the Blue Diamond so instead of looking at how outstanding Reann's five lengths' win was decided that the horses it beat were no good!

5. When Reann was in double figure odds most punters incorrectly decided that if it was those odds then it couldn't win.

6. Reann should have been sent out at odds no longer than $5.00 or $6.00. Starting at $14.00 and paying tote odds up to $17.00, Reann was a tremendous value bet.

So from this we can see that a bet is real value if it has a greater chance of either winning or placing than the betting odds you are getting. No amount of loss chasing staking will be able to turn around poor value bets. If your selection method backs a horse at $3.00 for the win when it should be $4.00, then it will lose over the long run. If your selection method backs a horse at $1.30 for the place when it should be $1.50 it will also lose over the long run.

Betting successfully on horses is all about getting value for your bets, not chasing losses and increasing the size of your next bet because your previous bet lost.
Continued next page

This edition of Punt to Win:
Bet for value and win money!
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
The Trifecta Surprise horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 1/3/2008
Betting favourites in small fields: 23/2/2008
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 1/3/2008 & 23/2/2008
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 23/2/2008
Punt to Win index

2007 Melbourne Cup Carnival Winners
Best Tote Odds


Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $10 bet
Distant Melody 26.00 49.90 $239
Montechoro 15.00 22.30 $73
Efficient 17.00 24.10 $71
Sculptor 21.00 24.90 $39
Partiva 21.00 24.30 $33
Count To Zero 13.00 15.70 $27


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