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8/3/2008 edition

Handicapping Tips
Weight and Class

We're all used to hearing "The horse has the class," to justify why a horse handicapped with a high weight should win. Similarly we're told "It's a 54 minimum. So the horse is only six kilos above the minimum."

Those sort of comments do not show an understanding of how handicaps affect most horses. The more weight, the less class a horse will have. Give a horse enough weight and it will have no class.

In a handicap, by the time horses have to carry 59kg. (60 with the safety vest), many become very dubious betting propositions at short odds. Similarly with jumpers - 70kg. (71 with the safety vest) is a very tough proposition.

The table below shows how horses that carried 59kg. or more in a handicap and were supported in the bookmakers' betting ring market - with a starting price of $11.00 or shorter - recently fared. (The safety vest is not included in the weight.) We're updating each week. It's certainly worth looking at this information over the long term.

Eagle Farm - 1/3/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Mitanni
61kg.
9
1200
$4.00
6/10
Canterbury - 23/2/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Testimonial
59kg.
3
1250
$8.00
5/7
Zarvista
59kg.
6
1250
$3.00fav.
4/7
Kyros
59kg.
5
1200
$5.00
4/6
Randwick - 16/2/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Blessus
59kg.
1
1200
$5.00
5/11
Posadas
59.5kg.
8
1200
$3.00fav.
1/10
Moonee Valley - 16/2/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Roman Arch
59.5kg.
6
1500
$6.00
3/7
Cheltenham - 16/2/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Tosstestaroan
60kg.
6
1450
$2.30fav.
3/13
Exalted Ego
60.5kg.
16
2250
$4.60fav.
8/16
Caulfield - 9/2/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Cargo Cult
59.5kg.
11
1400
$10.00
4/12
Morphettville - 9/2/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Oblglo
59kg.
4
1600
$8.00
4/12
Rosehill - 2/2/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Blessus
59kg.
8
1200
$6.00
3/8
Super Smudge
59kg.
4
1300
$5.50
3/7
Doomben - 2/2/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Mr Hornblower
59kg.
4
1350
$3.30fav.
3/11
Morphettville - 2/2/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Exalted Ego
59kg.
3
1800
$5.00
1/12
 

This edition of Punt to Win:
Bet for value and win money!
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
The Trifecta Surprise horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 1/3/2008
Betting favourites in small fields: 23/2/2008
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 1/3/2008 & 23/2/2008
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 23/2/2008
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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