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8/3/2008 edition

Betting Favourites
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, 1st. March.

Randwick: Track Dead

R3 $125,000 3YO Fillies. Group 2. Set weights.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Mimi Lebrock
Result: fifth
Starting price: $2.40
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Bart Cummings
Winner: Forensics
Starting price: $17.00
Top fluctuation: $17.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $9.70
Jockey: Rod Quinn
Trainer: Peter Snowden

Caulfield: Track Good

R1 $100,000 2YO. Listed. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Chilean Miss
Result: fifth
Starting price: $2.80
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: Colin McDonald
Winner: Whisper Bay
Starting price: $4.80
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.80
Jockey: James Winks
Trainer: David Hayes

Morphettville: Track Good

R4 $100,000 2YO. Group 3. Set weights.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Augusta Proud
Result: first

Starting price: $1.60
Top fluctuation: $1.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.60
Jockey: Clare Lindop
Trainer: Leon Macdonald

This edition of Punt to Win:
Bet for value and win money!
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
The Trifecta Surprise horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 1/3/2008
Betting favourites in small fields: 23/2/2008
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 1/3/2008 & 23/2/2008
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 23/2/2008
Punt to Win index

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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