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9/11/2001 edition

Betting Tips
from
Derby Day
and
Melbourne Cup Day

Derby Day:

It was a wonderful day's racing but not a good day for punters. With a very firm racing surface upsets were on the card. After the fourth the track was upgraded to Fast. Only Amalfi, the winner of the Derby at $6.00, started under double figure odds!

The day got off to an ordinary start for punters in the first, a 3YO Group 3 Handicap over 1600 metres.

The John Hawkes' trained Gordo was sent out the $3.50 favourite in the 13 horse field. He had barrier 12 and had to lug 57.5kg. He was trapped wide throughout and ran a great race to finish second.

The Lee Freedman trained All Courage, who is no good on rain affected tracks, won the race at $21.00. He was beaten by Gordo two weeks earlier by under four lengths on a Slow track at Caulfield. He met Gordo 3.5kg. better at the weights and on a racing surface that he liked.

The next race was a 3YO Group 3 Handicap over 1200 metres. Sydney visitor Storm Zero was backed in on track from $4.00 to $3.50 favourite. He was handicapped with 57.5kg. Three weeks earlier he won a 3YO restricted race at Rosehill and only had to carry 57kg. He didn't come in well at the weights at all. He never threatened in the race and finished sixth in the 10 horse field.

In the same race Flemington straight track specialist North Boy had top weight of 59kg., a 3.5kg. increase in weight from his last start three weeks earlier. He was also dropping back in distance from 1600 metres. That meant he was a huge risk in the race. He started at the short price of $4.20, didn't have much luck in the race, but put in a huge run and finished second.

Lee Freedman did it again with another longshot winner in the race when Cong Tong $21.00 won. This gelding had put in a huge run three weeks earlier, first up, at Caulfield in a strong 3YO Open. He worked hard in the run and finished an excellent second to Newquay. The track was rated Dead. Like All Courage, Chong Tong is far superior on firm ground. We top rated Chong Tong.

The Gai Waterhouse trained Primrose Sands was disappointing in the Caulfield Cup on October 20. She was beaten by nine lenghts and only carried 51kg. That meant she had to be a dubious bet in an 18 horse Group 2 Handicap over 2500 metres at Flemington with 57kg., an extra six kilos.

We find it hard to believe that she was backed in on track from $6.00 to $5.00 favourite! She finished a well beaten eleventh.

Next pages
Derby Day review
Melbourne Cup Day review
Future winners at big odds
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STOP PRESS
Top selection
Chong Tong $21.20
wins at Flemington!!
La Bella Dama $59.30 winner tipped!!!
Become a member now!

Did we ever tip some huge winners on Derby Day!!
Here is an e mail we received from one of our winning Hi Flyer members.

From: Keith Hentschke To: Neil
Sent: Sunday, November 04, 2001 12:23 PM
Subject: Derby Day Jackpots

"Hi Neil,
Just a quick note to say thanks for the Derby day Jackpot Selections as many long priced winners were contained within your selections. My .....selection method used for small bets produced 6 winners from 21 bets across the country for the day. The winners were All Courage $25, Quays $19, Slick Operator $8, La Bella Dama $60, Varicool $11 and Mossiton $7.

A return of 130 units on an outlay of 21 units was simply an awesome result ! Small bets on these allowed me to end the day well in front for what was a difficult day for the punter - especially in Melbourne.
Thanks again.
Cheers, Keith"

Keith has been a High Flyer member since joining us in 1998.
We must be doing something right!!


Warning
Short Priced Tote Favourites

These are losing bets.
Look at the table below and see the percentages lost backing short priced tote favourites compared with bookmaker betting ring prices.

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites to make up for the big unders on the tote.
If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Did you back any of these winners recently?
If you did, see the prices you should have got.

Horse
Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra percentage won Extra Profit $100 bet
Captain Test 4.00 8.00 133% $400
Rose Beat 2.70 4.50 106% $180
Greensward 4.00 5.50 50% $150
Omens 3.60 5.00 65% $140
Mistegic 3.50 4.80 52% $130
Marstic 4.80 6.00 32% $120
He's Back On Track 2.40 3.50 79% $110
Trinity College 2.80 3.80 56% $100
Comforts 2.80 3.80 56% $100
Descendant 2.80 3.80 56% $100
Pennywort 1.90 2.60 89% $70
Planchet 1.60 2.00 67% $40



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