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9/11/2001 edition

Betting Tips
from
Derby Day
and
Melbourne Cup Day

Melbourne Cup Day:

With light drizzle throughout the day the track was quickly downgraded from Good to Dead. However it did not cut up too badly and presented a fair racing surface.

Punters got off to a bad start early in the day. Wyndam Glory always looked a risky bet at the odds. The Tony McEvoy trained colt had brilliantly won a 2YO Listed race over 900 metres at Victoria Park.

At Flemington he did not come in at all well in the weights, being asked to carry 58kg., a huge increase from 54kg., in the 2YO Listed race over 1000 metres. He started as a short $2.35 favourite in the eight horse field and finished a well beaten second to one of the unraced brigade, the Dean Lawson trained Cool Trent.

Despite that setback, punters had a much better day. Three favourites won and eight of the 10 winners started under double figure odds.
   
Four year old mare Ethereal was the class act in the Cup. She won the Queensland Oaks last year. On October 13 after not having much luck, she had run a huge third at Weight for Age behind champion Northerly. She followed that up by winning the Caulfield Cup at her last start before the Cup. She came into the Melbourne Cup with only 52 kilos. Not bad at all with strong Weight for Age form. In the Cup she ran on strongly to overhaul Give The Slip. We top rated Ethereal.

Over the last 12 Melbourne Cups, 10 of the winners have now finished either first or second at their previous start!

The Melbourne Cup had a comparatively weak field this year. Overseas, Give The Slip is entered in races as a pacemaker. In other words he's just in the race to lead and ensure a suitable pace in the race for the stable's main chance(s). He is the sacrificial horse and not a serious winning chance in the race. Yet in the Melbourne Cup he unofficially took over the pacemaker's role and beat all but the winner home by at least six lengths!

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STOP PRESS
Top selection
Chong Tong $21.20
wins at Flemington!!
La Bella Dama $59.30 winner tipped!!!
Become a member now!

Did we ever tip some huge winners on Derby Day!!
Here is an e mail we received from one of our winning Hi Flyer members.

From: Keith Hentschke To: Neil
Sent: Sunday, November 04, 2001 12:23 PM
Subject: Derby Day Jackpots

"Hi Neil,
Just a quick note to say thanks for the Derby day Jackpot Selections as many long priced winners were contained within your selections. My .....selection method used for small bets produced 6 winners from 21 bets across the country for the day. The winners were All Courage $25, Quays $19, Slick Operator $8, La Bella Dama $60, Varicool $11 and Mossiton $7.

A return of 130 units on an outlay of 21 units was simply an awesome result ! Small bets on these allowed me to end the day well in front for what was a difficult day for the punter - especially in Melbourne.
Thanks again.
Cheers, Keith"

Keith has been a High Flyer member since joining us in 1998.
We must be doing something right!!


Warning
Short Priced Tote Favourites

These are losing bets.
Look at the table below and see the percentages lost backing short priced tote favourites compared with bookmaker betting ring prices.

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites to make up for the big unders on the tote.
If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Did you back any of these winners recently?
If you did, see the prices you should have got.

Horse
Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra percentage won Extra Profit $100 bet
Captain Test 4.00 8.00 133% $400
Rose Beat 2.70 4.50 106% $180
Greensward 4.00 5.50 50% $150
Omens 3.60 5.00 65% $140
Mistegic 3.50 4.80 52% $130
Marstic 4.80 6.00 32% $120
He's Back On Track 2.40 3.50 79% $110
Trinity College 2.80 3.80 56% $100
Comforts 2.80 3.80 56% $100
Descendant 2.80 3.80 56% $100
Pennywort 1.90 2.60 89% $70
Planchet 1.60 2.00 67% $40



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