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12/4/2002 edition

More Betting Myths

Favourites win more often in open betting races

What is one to make of the following comment from Alan Thomas while the horses were entering the barriers for the sixth of the day at Doomben last Saturday?

"Another wide betting race as was the previous. Funny thing. Sometimes in wide betting races it's amazing the number of times that the favourite wins. In the previous race Canterbury Downs started at $6.50 and favourite. The winner. Our favourite here is The Bandit. Number nine."

As a piece of advice for betting on favourites it is just not credible. Was it said because a favourite won at long odds the previous race? A statistical sample of one race? Here is an elementary statistic of betting on favourites:

$2.00 favourites win more often than $3.00 favourites. $3.00 favourites win more often than $4.00 favourites. $4.00 favourites win more often than $5.00 favourites. And so it goes on.

In wide open betting races the favourites win much less often than in races which are not wide open betting races.

Finally, whether open betting races or not, if punters indiscriminately back every favourite they must lose money over the long term.

By the way, "Our favourite... The Bandit" finished sixth. So what was Alan Thomas really telling us? We're not too sure. But at the end of the day Alan Thomas is a racing media journalist/entertainer.

Next pages
Listening to the call of the race - what you need to avoid
 Money talks - plunge horses
 Future winners at big odds
Betting packages

Back Tote Longshots?

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $100 bet
Double Dazzle 25.00 37.80 $1280
Henderson Bay
30.70
38.60
$790
Dance Sally Dance 24.30 30.70 $640
Wet Lips 24.40 29.20 $480
Seattle Ken 12.60 15.10 $250

Warning
Short Priced Tote Favourites
These are losing bets.

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and the poor value tote horses to make up for the big unders on the tote.
If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

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