13/10/2000 edition

Sunline Loses

In an epic two horse battle down the entire Flemington straight, champion four year old gelding Fairway just managed to defeat Sunline. It was absolutely staggering to see punters putting big money on Sunline at 4/9. An acquaintance in Sydney told me he heard one fellow place a $9,000 bet over the phone to win $4,000. The Professional Punter rated the race. Fairway was second rated. Of course Sunline was rated on top. But there was no way known at those short odds we'd even back Sunline with monopoly money.

Good ratings rank the horses according to their chances of winning a race. You don't refuse to rate a horse on top if it has the best winning chances in a race because it is going to be short odds. You simply won't back it.

Using any form criteria available such as weights, times, and current form Sunline had to be top rated simply because she had the best winning chances in the race. But Fairway was a champion three year old. As we pointed out in Horse Watch not much had gone right in his current campaign. Using a combination of class ratings, making allowances for bad luck and anticipating a higher rated performance due to improved fitness allowed Fairway to be second rated. The 14/1 on offer was way over the odds.  

Next: Punt to Win 6/10/2000

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