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15/2/2002 edition

Value Betting Tips

Don't follow the herd

To make money at racing you have to bet differently from the majority of punters. Let's face it. Unlike the stockmarket which is a positive sums game, betting on horse racing is very, very much a negative sums game. That means more money is bet on horses than is returned to punters in winnings. The average punter loses around 15% to 20% on turnover. Now that is not a pleasant figure at all.

One way of betting differently from the majority of punters is to look for horses at double figure odds which you believe have been incorrectly ignored by most punters.

Assess the horse on:
1. What you believe the horse is capable of doing.
2. Ask yourself, "What is the likelihood of the horse performing to that level in the coming race?"

Look for clues to help you like the jockey, record at the track, distance, conditions, and whether the horse is getting fitter (horses early in their campaign are open to more improvement as they get fitter from racing).


"The Sack Book"

In the Sunday Herald Sun, February 10, 2001, in a column called "Trackside at Flemington", Adrian Dunn puts a number of horses in what he calls "THE SACK BOOK".

We'll show you how this can present an opportunity for astute punters to make money if most punters follow the Adrian Dunn line of thought on these and similar horses.


1. "THE SACK BOOK: Miss Precisely arrived with good credentials from the West, but after enjoying nice cover, got into a bumping duel on the home turn and dropped out not long after."

Why sack a horse because it drops out after being in a bumping duel? Some horses are like that. Then when they get everything their own way pop up and win at big odds.

Here's a chance to get way over the odds if punters assume she will never run up to the form she showed in the West.

Next pages
"The Sack Book" continued
Wet track betting tips
Money talks
Future winners at big odds
Membership information


Warning
Short Priced Tote Favourites

These are losing bets.
Look at the table below and see the percentages lost backing short priced tote favourites compared with the top official bookmaker betting ring prices.

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites to make up for the big unders on the tote.
If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Did you back any of these winners recently?
If you did, see the minimum prices you should have received.
Make sure you do!

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra percentage won Extra Profit $100 bet
Victory Vein 5.50 8.50 67% $300
Triko 3.80 5.00 43% $120
Recruiting 3.30 4.20 39% $90


Back Tote Longshots?

Horse

Get these prices?
Or these prices!!
Extra Profit $100 bet
Regicide 22.40 36.00 $1360
Kaapgun
21.00
27.80
$680
China Consul
22.50
27.60
$510
Top Shot 25.90 30.60 $470


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