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15/2/2002 edition

Horse Racing:
Betting Strategy

Wet track betting odds

At Rosehill last Saturday the Gai Waterhouse trained Painted Thunder started at $3.30 on the Slow rated track. The three year old gelding had no wet track form.

Painted Thunder led comfortably but weakened a little over the last 200 metres and finished fourth. The $8.00 winner Treasure Time had raced once on a Slow rated track for one win.

Here are a few additional points to consider for wet tracks:

1. Slow track form is not Heavy track form.
2. Some horses can handle Slow tracks, but not Heavy tracks.
3. Lightly raced horses with no disclosed wet track form racing on a wet track are wild cards. They may be mudlarks.
4. This needs to be taken into account when deciding what is value for your selection.
5. Kaapgun, on the minimum weight, won the 2000 metres Listed Handicap at Rosehill last Saturday, paid up to $27.80 and blew punters away. Kaapgun had been racing well in much weaker class at Hawkesbury, but had no disclosed wet track form.

At this time of year when you expect Good tracks, wet tracks can make betting very tricky. You have to line up horses early in their new campaign who have raced first up on a wet track against other horses early in their new campaign who have raced first up on a Good track. It is best to be very cautious.

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Short Priced Tote Favourites

These are losing bets.
Look at the table below and see the percentages lost backing short priced tote favourites compared with the top official bookmaker betting ring prices.

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites to make up for the big unders on the tote.
If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Did you back any of these winners recently?
If you did, see the minimum prices you should have received.
Make sure you do!


Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra percentage won Extra Profit $100 bet
Victory Vein 5.50 8.50 67% $300
Triko 3.80 5.00 43% $120
Recruiting 3.30 4.20 39% $90

Back Tote Longshots?


Get these prices?
Or these prices!!
Extra Profit $100 bet
Regicide 22.40 36.00 $1360
China Consul
Top Shot 25.90 30.60 $470

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