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15/3/2002 edition

Carnival Racing
Take the Favourites on

Carnival racing - avoid favourites

With big fields or wide open races the favourites are again being sent around at silly betting odds. Some of the odds last Saturday were unbelievable:

Look at the Group 1 Newmarket Handicap, a 19 horse raffle over the 1200 metres straight at Flemington. The Lee Freedman trained Chong Tong was backed in on track from a very poor price of $6.00 to even poorer odds of $5.00 favourite.

If that horse had a realistic 20% chance of winning it left the remaining 18 runners with only an 80% winning chance between them.

The finish of the race was also a raffle, with only a length separating nine horses spread across the track, and less than half a length separating the first six.

The winner Rubitano who paid tote odds of $19.10 was handicapped at the bottom of the weights with only 51kg., had won a Liseted race one week earlier with 53kg. and had an outstanding strike rate - six wins and three places from only nine starts.

In form horses with phenomenal strike rates should be a very big watch when they are at generous odds.

By the way, in this race how was it possible for Sky Racing's Melbourne "expert" Alf Matthews to decide that if Spinning Hill, who had barrier nine, went to the grandstand side, then the winner would come from that side of the track? That the winner would be decided by what side of the straight Spinning Hill would race. We are still trying to work that one out.

At Rosehill in an open 15 horse 3YO Group 2 race over 1500 metres the Lee Freedman trained hype filly Ugachaka was backed in on track from $3.50 to $2.80 favourite - absolutely ridculous odds. The tote was even worse at $2.50.

She ran a nice race and finished second. But in big open fields that's no surprise - to see at least one horse that can beat a favourite sent around at very short odds.

Next pages
Inexperienced apprentice jockeys
Betting myths
Money talks - plunge horses
Future winners at big odds
Betting packages


Back Tote Longshots?

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $100 bet
Renano Brightia 21.00 33.10 $1210
Old Comrade
9.20
14.50
$530
Deuxieme
10.30
12.90
$260


Warning
Short Priced Tote Favourites

These are losing bets.

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and the poor value tote horses to make up for the big unders on the tote.
If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.


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