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15/12/2000 edition

Two Year Old Myth

One of the most clichéd comments for two year old races is to "Watch the betting" or "Watch the money." To be honest to back horses that are very firm or firm in the betting in these events won't work over the long term. We have pointed out in past articles how the market percentages are very high and connections who do heavily back their horses are often totally in the dark about the opposition.

How did the two year olds who were firm in the market fare last Saturday?

At Randwick Zedaside firmed from $4.50 to $4.00 and Timber Land from $5.00 to $4.50. They finished second and third. In the same race Financials was specked from $51.00 to $31.00. He finished last, beaten by 17 lengths. The winner Admiral Robinson eased in the betting ring from $4.00 to $6.00 and paid $7.80 on SuperTab. 

At Doomben Merkaba firmed from $1.70 to a starting price of $1.65. He finished second. The winner, Ancient Prince eased in the betting ring from $12.00 to $17.00 and paid $38.30 on the tote. 

In the first at Victoria Park they went for a huge plunge on first starter Mysterious Times from the Peter Hayes stable. It was backed in on track from $2.20 to $1.50. She finished fourth, beaten by nearly three lengths and never looked like winning. The winner Blessum eased in the betting ring from $11.00 to $17.00 and paid up to $34.60 on the tote. 

These results are not unusual.
Following the money in these races does not work. .
If you must have a bet  ignore the money and back a few horses at big odds if you can find suitable candidates. Look for good stables, good jockeys and well bred horses.
However the best advice is to often not bet. 
How often are you told that? 

Next: Punt to Win 8/12/2000

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