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16/11/2001 edition

Horse Racing Betting Tips

What a dud tip - odds are important

The Expat was a huge media tip for the Oaks Day meeting at Flemington. I heard one "expert" call it his "bet of the day".

Taking short odds about these horses guarantees you must lose. Consider these points:

1. Weight rise from 52kg. to 58kg. The most weight he had carried in his career of nine starts was 55.5kg.
2. Terrible barrier. He went from nine at his previous start to 15 at the Flemington 1400 metres start.
3. Terrible price. He was $2.00 favourite in the 16 horse field.

The Expat worked to get the lead, weakened when the pressure was applied in the straight and finished sixth, beaten by over five lengths.

Our suggestion is if you want to back a horse which rises significantly in weight only do so if you get good odds about the animal. Ignore those poorly weighted, short priced horses being touted for free by the racing media.

Last Saturday Chong Tong was a qualifier for us under one of our selection methods for our High Flyer members. But he rose in weight from 54.5kg. to 57kg. He also had barrier 12 from the Flemington 1400 metres start. We were not going to back the horse at ridiculously short odds. We wanted a minimum of $8.00. He won, backed in on track from $9.00 to $7.00.

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Warning
Short Priced Tote Favourites

These are losing bets.
Look at the table below and see the percentages lost backing short priced tote favourites compared with bookmaker betting ring prices.

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites to make up for the big unders on the tote.
If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Did you back any of these winners recently?
If you did, see the prices you should have got.

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra percentage won Extra Profit $100 bet
Chong Tong 5.60 9.00 74% $340
Into The Night 3.00 5.00 100% $200
Life Goes On Oh 5.10 7.00 46% $190
Bond 4.30 6.00 52% $170
Joie 4.80 6.50 45% $170
Tormentus 2.60 3.80 75% $120
House Guest 3.10 4.20 52% $110
Deprave 2.20 3.00 67% $80
Werewolf 2.50 3.20 47% $70

Back Tote Longshots?

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $100 bet
La Bella Dama 46.10 59.30 $1320
Smilingly 10.40 13.40 $300
Prince Regal 12.90 15.90 $300
Off To Sea 12.50 15.30 $280
Perfect Halo 8.80 11.20 $240
Solemnity 13.00 15.30 $230


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