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17/10/2003 edition

Caulfield Guineas Day

"It's going to be terrific value all day" - Dean Lester, on Radio Sport 927, (Friday, 10th. October.)
So why would most punters have lost money?

The Spring Carnival leading into the Melbourne Cup hit with a vengeance last Saturday. Here are the results from Caulfield Guineas Day;

Our Eden 1st. $15.00, tote $20.30
Glenalton 13th. $6.50 favourite

Regal Roller 1st. $17.00, tote $22.50
Catch Me Mate 9th. $4.20 favourite

Crown Princess 1st. $13.00, tote $12.60
Dorky 9th. $3.80 favourite

Halibery 1st. $14.00, tote $11.70
Spinning Hill 3rd. $3.20 favourite

Yakama 1st. $10.00, tote $9.80
Grey Song 9th. $4.60 favourite

In Top Swing 1st. $19.00, tote $20.80
Exceed And Excel 6th. $3.50 favourite

Lonhro 1st. $1.60 favourite, tote $1.50

Roman Arch 1st. $21.00, tote $24.10
Tru Glo 6th. $5.50 favourite

Dream Leica 1st. $21.00, tote $19.90
Infinite Grace 10th. $4.60 favourite

Only a true champion like Lonhro raced according to form as a favourite, on a day where just one other favourite, Spinning Hill, ran a place.

Those results are typical of the wide open raffle betting races which punters are told are terrific betting value races. Let's make it perfectly clear - wide open races are not great betting value. The occasional punter will fluke a win but many more punters than usual will lose.

Would anyone be interested in getting odds between $8.00 and $30.00 on just one number from a roulette wheel coming up? Great betting value isn't it? Betting during Carnivals is no different. The odds are stacked against punters. It is a time to reduce, not increase bet size. We will certainly be doing that in coming weeks.

Who were the winners from Caulfield Guineas Day? They probably included the Melbourne Racing Club, TABs, bookmakers, wealthy trainers, wealthy jockeys, wealthy owners, and wealthy studs.

Who were the losers from Caulfield Guineas Day?
The punters. You know the old story. The rich get richer, the poor get poorer. So let's not get carried away with Carnival Racing. there's no need to become all excited, hyped up and prepared to bet up.

Instead, bet safely and decrease the amount you bet in coming weeks.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Caulfield Guineas Day/Melbourne Cup Carnival betting tips
Caulfield Guineas Day - was it a biased track?
Spring Carnival horses - good runs, good betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Rosehill, Caulfield betting tips from the track
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 10/10/2003
Punt to Win index

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Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $100 bet
Grumans 15.40 36.80 $2140
Touchy Subject 22.50 35.80 $1430
Rupanyup 12.30 22.80 $1050
Proudly Aggro 29.40 38.90 $950
Silver Canon 30.90 39.90 $900
Sure Bet 15.50 23.90 $840
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