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17/10/2003 edition

Horse Racing Track Bias Hysteria

Blaming track bias for losing bets and horses being unable to win is rapidly replacing blaming jockeys for poor rides. Punters have latched on to the racing media track bias paranoia. For example media tipsters make proviso tips like, "If the track favours leaders it should win," and "If horses can run on it'll win."

Then there are the racing media journalists, who on the basis of even just one race, start to enthusiastically squawk "track bias". You could just imagine a parrot squawking, "Track bias, track bias, squawk, squawk, can't run on, can't run on, track bias, track bias, squawk, squawk!"

When Our Eden led throughout to win the first race at Caulfield last Saturday you should have heard the mutterings on Sky Racing about a biased leaders' track. Then when Regal Roller led throughout to win the second race what was there left to say?

In the Herald Sun, Monday, October 13, 2003, racing journalist Michael Manley wrote:

"Don't undersell the effort of champion sprinting mare Spinning Hill in finishing third in the Group 2 Schillaci Stakes (1000m) at Caulfield on Saturday.
She wasn't suited by the track bias and had to go wide on a shifting track.
Spinning Hill gave away too big a start but exploded over the last 400m, which she ran in 22.20sec, quickest for the meeting..."

It's amazing how so many people don't appear to see or analyse what actually happens. The pace of a race is very relevant. Michael Manley has probably refuted his own track bias claim theory himself by pointing out how Spinning Hill "exploded over the last 400m".

Spinning Hill simply got too far back. The fact that she was able to run the fastest time of the meeting out wide showed there was no bias; it demonstrated that horses could run on from out wide and that horses did not need to be hard up against the rails.

Where was the track bias when Lonhro settled well back in the field, skirted wide round the home turn and went away for an easy win? Or for that matter the win of Yakama which settled last?

There was no track bias at Caulfield.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Caulfield Guineas Day/Melbourne Cup Carnival betting tips
Caulfield Guineas Day - was it a biased track?
Spring Carnival horses - good runs, good betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Rosehill, Caulfield betting tips from the track
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 10/10/2003
Punt to Win index

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