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17/10/2003 edition

Betting Favourites
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, October 11.

Rosehill: Track Dead
R1 $50,000 Mares. Transition. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Native Jester
Result: first
Winning/losing margin: 3.8 lengths
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctation: $2.80
Tote dividends' range: $2.90 - $3.20
Jockey: Jim Cassidy
Trainer: Tim Martin

Eagle Farm: Track Good
R1 $28,000 Rs2ly. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Penetrator
Result: second
Winning/losing margin: 1.3 lengths
Starting price: $2.25
Top fluctation: $2.35
Jockey: Anthony Pattillo
Trainer: Gillian Heinrich
Winner: Yogi's Edition
Winning/losing margin: 1.3 lengths
Starting price: $13.00
Top fluctation: $13.00
Tote dividends' range: $18.00 - $23.00
Jockey: John Powell
Trainer: Bill Castles

This edition of Punt to Win:
Caulfield Guineas Day/Melbourne Cup Carnival betting tips
Caulfield Guineas Day - was it a biased track?
Spring Carnival horses - good runs, good betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Rosehill, Caulfield betting tips from the track
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 10/10/2003
Punt to Win index

Betting packages

You Need Top Odds

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and the poor value tote horses to make up for the big unders on the tote.

If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Short priced tote favourites
are losing bets.

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