21/9/2001 edition

Horse Racing Betting Strategy

Damien Oliver is not a magician!

Last Saturday at Moonee Valley, Damien Oliver on Northerly clearly outrode Greg Childs on Sunline. With split second timing needed, in retrospect, Childs made his move to lead on Sunline just a little early. There is every chance if jockeys were reversed the result would have been different, but we'll never know!

However, while Damien Oliver is an outstanding jockey, he cannot pull rabbits out of a hat. Therefor you need to be wary about backing a horse simply because Damien Oliver, or for that matter any other popular jockey, has the ride.

Because Damien Oliver is such a popular jockey, many of his horses went around at well under their true winning chances last Saturday at Moonee Valley.

Amalfi had a huge class rise from winning a restricted 3YO Class 6 race at Doomben to racing in a 3YO Quality at Moonee Valley. Throw in a 4.5kg. weight rise to 57kg. as well, and the starting price of $5.00 was unbelievably short. Oliver did an amazing job to finish second on the colt.

Tickle My had a very ordinary barrier,10, in an open Mares Group 3 Weight for Age event. With 14 runners in the event on the tight, turning Moonee Valley track, the $4.00 starting price was poor value. Again, an excellent ride by Oliver resulted in Tickle My fnishing second to Lady Marion, beaten by a length.

Bush Padre had barrier 12 in an Open Handicap. It was a big ask for the four year old gelding considering he also had to lug 57kg. That was two kilos less than what he carried at his previous win, 17 days earlier. But that race was a midweek welter at Eagle Farm. He was rising much more than two kilos in classs. The starting price in the 13 horse field of only $3.00 was way under the odds. Oliver's good ride resulted in the horse finishing second.

Betting strategy for small fields

These are invariably tricky betting affairs. However often punters focus on one horse and send it around at way under its true winning chances. This can then create value with some of the other runners.

A typical case was the restricted 1600 metres race at Eagle Farm last Saturday, a seven horse affair. What was unusual about this race was that four of the horses all met at the same track exactly one week earlier. As a result of that race punters sent out Midnight Warrior at the short price of only $2.50. That was well under the horse's true winning chances as several other horses all had bad luck stories from the race.

One such runner was Final Shuffle who we top rated. After being held up early in the straight last Saturday, the horse went to the line powerfully over the last 200 and in a tight finish , just missed out and finished second. His starting price was $9.00. Far better value than the short priced $2.50 favourite, Midnight Warrior. He settled third on the rails, got terribly held up in the straight, and because of that never was a winning chance.

Next pages
Future winners at big odds
Hit - another John Hawkes' "good thing"
Alf Matthews - egg on his face?
Distance doubts - watch out
What you need to know about Carnival racing
This horse is due to win
And more...

Top Odds Are Important

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