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21/11/2003 edition

Bet For Value And Win

Continued from previous page

"... Punting is about VALUE. Value means the price you get for a horse is better than its chance of winning (however you work that out).

In reality the total of all horses equals a 100% chance of winning. Betting markets are set higher as they must contain a profit margin for the bookmaker/TAB. ....

Under any pricing approach to 100%, the only way your prices will be lower for EVERY runner is if your opinion is largely the same as the market. In this instance you don't bet becase the price you obtain will be lower than each horse's true winning chance.

However on many occasions your opinion will be different to the market and therefore you will find prices offered higher than your estimation of the horse's winning chance. They are the times to bet. If your difference of opinion to the market is right enough times then you win, if it's not you lose, simple.

As complex as racing is, the essence of winning comes down to this basic factor.

One of the best pieces of advice I can give anyone who wants to win is "only bet when you have an advantage". It doesn't matter how you work it out, whether it's by pricing or whatever, but make sure you have an advantage and know what it is and why it exists before you bet.

Too many people have too many bets on horses they like and think will win, but in reality there is no advantage in betting. In the long run these bets will lose you money. We have to remember that from the start the market is stacked against us. Back every horse at $5 and you will lose. You have to be certain that the next horse you back at $5, should not be $5, it should in fact be $4.50 or $4 and the reasons why.

Making money is not just about backing winners. It's about betting on horses who are going to win more often than their price indicates. There is a big difference.

Ask yourself before you next place a bet, what's my advantage in backing this horse? Why do I think it has a better chance than the market suggests? If you can't answer that then you probably shouldn't be betting in the race.

Most people spend time trying to find an approach to pick winners and that's why the elusive chase never ends. To win you need to concentrate on developing an approach that helps you find situations where value is created..."

This edition of Punt to Win:
Bet for value and win
Simple selection method - 125% recent profit on turnover
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Rosehill, Sandown betting tips from the track
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 14/11/2003
Punt to Win index


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Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $100 bet
Grumans 15.40 36.80 $2140
Touchy Subject 22.50 35.80 $1430
Rupanyup 12.30 22.80 $1050
Proudly Aggro 29.40 38.90 $950
Silver Canon 30.90 39.90 $900
Sure Bet 15.50 23.90 $840
Starbucks 11.80 20.10 $830


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