21/11/2003 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, November 15.

Rosehill: Track Good
R2 $20,000 3YO and upwards. Transitional. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Lord Revoque
Result: fourth
Winning/losing margin: 5.1 lengths
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctation: $2.80
Jockey: Jon Grisedale
Trainer: Chris Waller
Winner: Octennial
Winning/losing margin: 2.5 lengths
Starting price: $2.70
Top fluctation: $3.00
Tote dividends' range: $2.60 - $2.80
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: Gary Portelli

Sandown Hillside: Track Good
R1 $60,000 3YO Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: four
Favourite: Barabba Road
Result: equal third
Winning/losing margin: 0.5 lengths
Starting price: $2.25
Top fluctation: $2.30
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: Phillip Stokes
Winner: Sigishoara
Winning/losing margin: short head
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctation: $3.00
Tote dividends' range: $3.10 - $3.40
Jockey: Darren Gauci
Trainer: John Hawkes

Cheltenham: Track Good
R1 $22,000 2YO. Open. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Deprivation
Result: second
Winning/losing margin: 3.8 lengths
Starting price: $1.85
Top fluctation: $2.10
Jockey: Joe Bowditch
Trainer: Richard Jolly
Winner: Way West
Winning/losing margin: 3.8 lengths
Starting price: $2.90
Top fluctation: $2.90
Tote dividends' range: $2.30 - $2.70
Jockey: Aaron Spiteri
Trainer: Tony McEvoy

R2 $22,000 3YO and upwards. Fillies and Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Swiss Vault
Result: third
Winning/losing margin: 2.6 lengths
Starting price: $2.00
Top fluctation: $2.20
Jockey: Ben Claridge
Trainer: Stuart Gower
Winner: Counter Sue
Winning/losing margin: 2.3 lengths
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctation: $4.50
Tote dividends' range: $3.50 - $3.70
Jockey: Jason Holder
Trainer: Leon Macdonald

This edition of Punt to Win:
Bet for value and win
Simple selection method - 125% recent profit on turnover
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Rosehill, Sandown betting tips from the track
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 14/11/2003
Punt to Win index

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