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21/11/2003 edition

Bet For Value And Win

Many punters treat betting on horses like playing and betting on roulette. Standard roulette systems keep increasing bets until a set number combination like 'black" or "odds" comes up, when the player is meant to quit a winner.

Because the odds are always against the player, as the house has a zero, sometimes two zeros, these methods are doomed to fail. The player is always getting poor value and when the long losing comes any past profits will disappear. In addition these loss chasing methods can quickly fall into a hole when they run into house table limits.

The only way you can win long term with any horse racing selection method is if you obtain bets that are real value. If not the bets will lose long term. A bet is real value if it has a greater chance of either winning or placing than the odds you are getting. No amount of loss chasing staking will be able to turn around poor value bets. If your selection method backs a horse at $3.00 for the win when it should be $4.00, then it will lose. If your selection method backs a horse at $1.30 for the place when it should be $1.50 it will lose.

Betting successfully on horses is all about getting value for your bets, not chasing losses and increasing the size of your next bet because your previous bet lost.

Here is a post about the importance of value from our Horse Racing Forum by osulldj, posted on the 13th. November this year. It's definitely worth reading and keeping in mind next time you have a bet.
Continued next page

This edition of Punt to Win:
Bet for value and win
Simple selection method - 125% recent profit on turnover
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Rosehill, Sandown betting tips from the track
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 14/11/2003
Punt to Win index


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Horse

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Grumans 15.40 36.80 $2140
Touchy Subject 22.50 35.80 $1430
Rupanyup 12.30 22.80 $1050
Proudly Aggro 29.40 38.90 $950
Silver Canon 30.90 39.90 $900
Sure Bet 15.50 23.90 $840
Starbucks 11.80 20.10 $830


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