22/2/2002 edition

Horse Racing
Betting Strategy and Tips

Big last start winners - watch the odds

Horses who win by three lengths or more have a big plus. The handicapper cannot increase their weight at their next start by enough to completely nullify the three lengths' winning margin.

There is also a big negative. All punters can see the large winning margin. As a result many of these horses are sent around well under the odds at their next start.

In the Randwick race won by the Hawkes' trained Youhadyourwarning, four year old mare Gwendolyn was solidly backed from $4.00 to $2.90. She had won her previous start in devastating fashion by over four lengths. However on Saturday Gwendolyn had barrier nine in the field of 15.

Horses can have bad luck from a middle barrier in a big field. Punters who took the short odds didn't allow for bad luck. We did and wanted at least $6.00 for Gwendolyn. Gwendolyn was badly checked on jumping away and feeling the affects never got into the race after that and finished last.

Bet on horses who make their own luck

With the racing patterns in Australia it is pretty clear if you want to maximise your chances of success you must:

1. Concentrate on backing horses who lead or race on the speed.
2. Penalise most run on horses.
3. If you back run on horses then you must take longer odds about them than for on pace runners.

On Sunday at Flemington our Special, Dash For Cash raced on the speed and starting at $4.20 was an impressive winner of the Group 1 $750,000 Guineas. We assessed Dash For Cash as a $3.50 chance.

Second place getter Royal Code settled well back in the field and made up many lengths on Dash For Cash in the straight.

Glen Boss, the jockey of Royal Code was reported in Monday's Herald Sun as making excuses for Royal Code:

"I thought his run was unbelievable and I have no doubt he is the best horse in the race. Unfortunately the pace steadied during the middle stages which made things hard for us."

If the horse raced on the speed that would not be an issue. With all due respect, Glen Boss has made an error in judgement by claiming Royal Code was the "best horse in the race". Royal Code also lost to Dash For Cash eight days earlier.

Next pages
Money talks
Future winners at big odds
Betting packages

Warning
Short Priced Tote Favourites
These are losing bets.
Look at the table below and see the percentages lost backing short priced tote favourites compared with the top official bookmaker betting ring prices.

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