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22/3/2002 edition

Carnival Racing
Favourites' Short Odds

Last week we wrote:

"Carnival racing - avoid favourites

With big fields or wide open races the favourites are again being sent around at silly betting odds."

With carnival racing in full swing in Sydney now, with the Golden Slipper to be held this weekend, many races are wide open and favourites offer very poor betting value.

Have a look at Rosehill last Saturday:

3YO Listed. Handicap. 1300 metres.
Into The Night, pushed heavily by the media was backed into $3.00 favourite in this 15 horse field and finished twelfth.
Bosworth, in the same race, started at only $4.60 from barrier 11 and finished fourth.
Jai's Jump put in a massive run, being wide throughout from barrier 15 and won the race. Paid tote odds up to $28.60.

Group 3. Handicap. 2400 metres.
Gillespie,
was backed into $3.80 favourite in this open 12 horse race. He finished a well beaten eighth.
Manner Hill, trained by Gai Waterhouse, led throughout to win. Paid tote odds up to $20.30.

Listed. Handicap. 1900 metres.
Cheverny,
backed into $4.80 in this open 12 horse race, finished ninth.
Swiss Echo looked a good bet at $5.00. Finished tenth after being galloped on.
Restless, also trained by Gai Waterhouse, finished strongly to win and
paid tote odds up to $12.60.

Listed. Handicap. 1400 metres.
Defier was sent out at the very, very skinny odds of $2.25. This was a wide open 14 horse race. After being badly held up for a run, Defier was finally able to get out and win. Punters were very lucky.

At the Golden Slipper meeting this Saturday there will once again be many open races. In each of these races the favourite should probably be at betting odds between $7.00 to even around $10.00 or more. Some will be sent around at skinny odds of $4.80 or even shorter.

Money can not be made by taking unders on favourites in wide open races. Small bets on horses at generous odds is the way to go. Of course there will be losing runs, but you'll only need to get an occasional winner to give yourself a chance.

Next pages
Trainers John Hawkes and Gai Waterhouse.
Back this horse in the Melbourne Cup?
Money talks - plunge horses
Future winners at big odds
Betting packages


Back Tote Longshots?

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $100 bet
Renano Brightia 21.00 33.10 $1210
Old Comrade
9.20
14.50
$530
Deuxieme
10.30
12.90
$260


Warning
Short Priced Tote Favourites

These are losing bets.

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and the poor value tote horses to make up for the big unders on the tote.
If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.


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