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23/11/2001 edition

Horse Racing Betting Tips

First start "good things"

Last Saturday the Gai Waterhouse trained two year old filly Shurooq was backed in on track from $3.50 to $3.00 favourite. The filly led comfortably from barrrier four, was pressured around the home turn, but had every chance in the race and was headed near the finish by Bullala who won by over a length.

Bullala had the benefit of two races and was only beaten a length at his previous start at Rosehill five weeks earlier. He paid up to $11.30.

At Cheltenham there were two first starters, amazingly both "good things" in the same race, a two year old restricted event over 1000 metres with only six starters.

The Tony McEvoy trained filly Anacarde was backed in on track from $2.20 to odds on $1.90 favourite. The filly, ridden by stable jockey Simon Price, had barrier one. She led, was pressured, weakened over the last 150 metres and finished fourth beaten by over four lengths.

Brought over from Melbourne was the Rick Hore-Lacy trained filly Spartacular, whose sire was the well performed Spartacus. Good Melbourne apprentice Dale Smith also came over for the ride.

Spartacular started at $2.40. She never got into the race and was beaten by over 10 lengths! The winner of the race was our Special, Flawed Logic who started at $5.00. If those same horses had been racing in Melbourne or Sydney, considerably better odds than $5.00 would have been available for Flawed Logic.


Jockey Watch

Damien Oliver's followers had a huge day last Saturday when the champion hoop won an amazing five races at Sandown. Oliver is definitely worth a couple of lengths to every horse he rides.

Noone has ever won money long term backing every horse a jockey rides. Stats show significant losses backing every horse a jockey rides. But it can give you a great edge if you can pick the best of Oliver's rides and only back those horses when they are value.

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Warning
Short Priced Tote Favourites

These are losing bets.
Look at the table below and see the percentages lost backing short priced tote favourites compared with bookmaker betting ring prices.

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites to make up for the big unders on the tote.
If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Did you back any of these winners recently?
If you did, see the prices you should have got.

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra percentage won Extra Profit $100 bet
Kulnura 3.90 6.00 72% $210
Sri Lanka 3.80 5.50 61% $170
Daniel's The Man 3.00 4.60 80% $160
Moon Dragon 4.20 5.50 41% $130
Magic Feather 2.40 3.50 79% $110
Snippets' Belle 2.30 3.20 69% $90
Deerhill 2.40 3.20 57% $80
Messiaen 1.80 2.25 56% $45

Back Tote Longshots?

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $100 bet
La Bella Dama 46.10 59.30 $1320
My Sky Rocket 28.60 40.10 $1150


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